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The House of Representatives’ investigation of the Bank Century bailout has not taken a big toll on the financial markets, but the political fallout that might yet result could hamper the government’s ability to deliver much-needed policies in the longer term, analysts said on Wednesday.

Two parties in President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s coalition government — the Golkar and Prosperous Justice (PKS) parties — have accused Vice President Boediono and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati of abusing their power in bailing out Bank Century. Both Boediono and Sri Mulyani are popular with international investors, who regard them as solid reformers and key economic policy makers.

The political tension has left the coalition fragile, and the fates of Boediono and Sri Mulyani uncertain. Their removal from the cabinet would limit the government’s ability to implement the policies needed to capitalize on the global economic recovery and the country’s own resilient economy, analysts said.

“The latest developments tell us that this political turbulence could drag on for much longer,” said Helmi Arman, an economist at PT Bank Danamon.

“If it does lead to a [cabinet] reshuffle involving key economic figures, there are two key questions that the market would want answers to. First, will the [new] government be able to replicate its prudent fiscal track record of the past five years. Second, how dependable will the new administration be in pushing through long-promised reforms.”

On the other hand, if Yudhoyono ejected Golkar and the PKS from the coalition, he would the lose the support of about 30 percent of the 560-strong House, also hampering his ability to make policy, said Eric Alexander Sugandi, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank Indonesia.

Eric said the political tension had so far remained within levels acceptable by the market.

“It hasn’t escalated to seriously shake SBY as the president,” Eric said. However, he warned that it would be regrettable if the country’s strong economy was damaged by its political infighting.

Standard Chartered has predicted that the rupiah will strengthen to 8,900 against the dollar by the fourth quarter, and the economy will grow by 5.5 percent this year.

“It would be a pity if this is screwed up by this [political] tension,” Eric said.

Singapore-based analyst Jacob Ramsay, of consultancy Control Risks, told Bloomberg on Wednesday that he doubted that Yudhoyono would dismiss the two parties from the coalition. “Can he afford to? Or will he shock us by thinning the coalition and relying on strategic alliances” with the main opposition Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), he said.

Kahlil Rowter, president director of state-owned credit-rating agency PT Pefindo, said he thought the fallout from the bailout investigation was a natural part of the country’s democratic growing pains.

“I think it’s the dynamics of democracy,” he said. “Soon we will know where it is heading, but I believe Indonesia has been more mature than before.”

The rupiah fell by 0.4 percent to 9,335 against the US dollar as of the stock market’s close on Wednesday, but analysts said the drop was caused by consumer-confidence data from the US.