Earnings Reports, Bernanke’s Future Likely to Create Volatility in US Stocks
January 24, 2010
The Microsoft booth at the recent 2010 International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. The software giant will post its quarterly earnings results this week. (Bloomberg Photo) Related articles
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Stocks in the United States could see choppy trading this week with the latest batch of earnings and uncertainty over Ben Bernanke’s Senate confirmation for another term as Federal Reserve chairman.
While the White House was confident the Democratic-controlled Senate would confirm Bernanke for a second term, he faces opposition from both Democrats and Republicans critical of the Fed’s handling of the financial crisis.
Apple, Microsoft and Procter & Gamble are among dozens of companies due to post quarterly results this week.
But investors head into the week after seeing stocks fall for three straight days, the worst losses in ten months. US President Barack Obama’s plan for tougher restrictions on banks on Thursday was among factors rattling investors.
The Obama news “sent a shiver of uncertainty about the entire landscape across Wall Street and uncertainty breeds selling,” said Michael James, a senior trader at regional investment bank Wedbush Morgan. That means “a lot of volatility” for the week, he said.
Investors will focus on the Fed’s statement on the economy and interest-rate policy expected on Wednesday as well as react to data on existing home sales and the government’s first reading of US gross domestic product for the fourth quarter.
For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 4.1 percent, the Standard and Poor’s 500 index declined 3.9 percent and the Nasdaq dropped 3.6 percent. The indexes ended lower the previous week as well.
But, the S&P 500 is still up 61 percent since its early March lows, driven in large part by stronger-than-expected earnings and economic news, and some analysts see the bull trend continuing despite recent losses.
Overall, “I don’t see any evidence to suggest the bull market from March has ended. I think the current weakness could present a buying opportunity,” Chris Burba, short-term market technician at Standard and Poor’s, said.
Fourth-quarter company results are expected to show a sharp improvement compared with 2008’s last quarter when the downturn hit profits hard.
S&P 500 earnings for the quarter are forecast up 193 percent versus a year ago. It would be the first quarter that the S&P 500 company earnings grew year over year since the second quarter of 2007.
So far this reporting period, earnings have not provided the same support to stocks as they have in recent quarters. On Thursday, when Obama’s banking proposal was announced, shares of Goldman Sachs slid even though the company posted stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter results.
Investors are likely to focus again on news from Washington, with the Senate’s vote on Bernanke expected next week.
“While the belief is out there he will continue to sit where he is currently, it adds another level of fear which is not good for a market where a lot of people are questioning the rally anyway,” Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets, said.
Also, on Wednesday, the Fed’s policy-setting panel concludes its two-day meeting, with rates widely expected to be left at near zero. Reuters
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