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Market Watch: Eight Things to Look Out for in 2010
Matthew Lynn | December 28, 2009

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No one can complain that the past two years have been light on drama. We had the worst financial crash in living memory and some of the biggest banks in the world came under state control.

Bearing in mind that any predictions made here are about as reliable as the repayments on a Dubai bond, here are eight things that might grab our attention in the next 12 months.

One: Tax Cuts

Every government in Europe faces a fiscal crunch. They have tried spending their way out of the recession and run up huge deficits. By the middle of 2010, governments will start to realize that only rapid economic growth will dig them out of the budgetary hole. The only way they can do that is with pro-business policies and lower taxes.

Two: BT Group and Vodafone Group Merge

In a world marked by low growth and fierce competition, companies will be calling their mergers-and-acquisitions bankers to help them out. Only a big deal that allows them to strip out costs will keep profits rising. The fixed-line operator BT and the mobile-phone giant Vodafone both face rapid technological change and pressure on their earnings. Like two drunks in a bar, they could prop each other up.

Three: News Corporation Sells The Times

Rupert Murdoch has always been the smartest, least sentimental player in the news media industry. Now he’s considering putting up pay walls on his British newspaper Web sites. By the middle of the year, he will realize that’s crazy. Murdoch didn’t become a billionaire without knowing when to fold a losing hand. The Times is a prestigious name, so there should be a Russian oligarch or Middle Eastern oil sheik willing to pay something for it.

Four: An Italian Head of the European Central Bank

Jean-Claude Trichet’s term as president of the ECB will expire in 2011 but by the end of 2010 the jockeying for his job will have started. They can’t have another Frenchman, nor can they go for the European Union’s default option of appointing an obscure Dutchman. Why not an Italian? It’s not a nation one associates with sound financial management but Mario Draghi has impressed the markets as Bank of Italy governor. And, hey, he worked at Goldman Sachs. The Goldman alumni already run the rest of the world, so they might as well add the ECB.

Five: UK Strikes

In May, Britain will get its first incoming Conservative government since Margaret Thatcher became prime minister in 1979. The country is in an economic hole now, just as it was then. Conservative Party leader David Cameron will want to get the pain in early, cutting public spending and slashing corporate taxes. But he will find the unions are still a force to be reckoned with. Expect some bitter strikes and plenty of wobbles for the pound as markets wait to see who wins.

Six: Irish Economic Comeback

The Irish are in the doldrums. The economy has shriveled. But the phrase “the luck of the Irish” wasn’t coined for nothing. Alone among the developed economies, the Irish have been ruthlessly purging the excesses of the bubble. By the end of 2010, while the rest of the world tries to figure out why taking on more debt isn’t the best way to fix a debt crisis, the Irish economy will come roaring back.

Seven: The Lawsuits Start Flying

When the going gets tough, the lawyers get busy. There were plenty of deals struck during 2006 and 2007 that have about as much chance of making a profit as Bernard L. Madoff does of spending Christmas at home with the family. Expect a wave of lawsuits as dozens of private-equity managers, hedge-fund investors and bank traders decide that big deal they did in 2007 was illegal — and they want their money back.

Eight: “Long Fuses” Drive Us All Crazy

In the aftermath of any debt crisis, it takes a long time for the problems to become apparent. Like Dubai, they will detonate, but they are on a long fuse. The trouble is that there are lots of long fuses out there. So while it’s a perfectly good phrase right now, by the end of 2010 we’ll be fed up with it. We’ll probably be fed up with the debt explosions as well.




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