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Even more exhilarating than finding out the winners of the 82nd Academy Awards is predicting them beforehand. As a movie buff, it’s a tradition I consider sacred.

There are 24 golden statuettes up for grabs this year, from ancillary Oscars — such as best makeup, original score and special effects — to the big guns: best actor, actress and director. But everyone knows that the best picture is the most coveted award of the night, so that’s what I’ll focus on.

Before I go on to give my humble predictions, it’s important to note two significant changes in this year’s voting process. Instead of nominating five movies, the Academy decided to double the number of candidates this year. The last time the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences pitted 10 films against one another was in 1942.

The Academy has also introduced a new preferential balloting system. Members of the Academy are asked to rank the nominees from one to 10, and the ballots will go through a complex, round-by-round elimination process until one movie has at least a 51 percent majority.

These new changes ultimately affect the calculation of honors — now grabbing second or third position actually matters.

I will pretend that I’m one of the voting members of the Academy, and rank the 10 movies in reverse order. Here’s what my ballot would look like:

No. 10: ‘Up’

The family-oriented “Up” is fresh, funny and imaginative, but at the same time addresses deep, complex human emotions. But this movie will not win, simply because it’s an animated film. A movie that doesn’t involve real-life, on-screen actors should not win. If it’s any consolation, “Up” will undoubtedly win best animated feature.

No. 9: ‘District 9’

Set in South Africa, “District 9,” directed by Neill Blomkamp, is a smart, interplanetary conflict that goes beyond thrilling action sequences by creating a cinematic allegory rooted in social injustice. Sci-fi is always a no for me. I just can’t relate emotionally with anything non-human.

Also, historically speaking, with the exception of 2003’s “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,” fantasy flicks have a record of snubs in this category — remember “E.T.” and “Star Wars”? Well, history is likely to repeat itself.

No. 8: ‘A Serious Man’

After winning the 2008 best picture for “No Country for Old Men,” the Coen Brothers are back. “A Serious Man” cleverly explores a Jewish man’s religious convictions in a time of hopelessness, through a hilarious, well-scripted dark comedy. But this movie is one of those love-it-or-hate-it situations. Black comedy isn’t something that whets many cinematic appetites, and the movie’s heavy focus on Jewish life, somewhat autobiographical for the Coens, may limit its appeal to a broader audience.

Number 7: ‘Blind Side’

Based on a true story, John Lee Hancock’s “The Blind Side” is easily the most heart-melting movie of the year. It is infused with family values and a sense that nothing is impossible, topped off with Sandra Bullock’s stellar performance as a caring, yet matriarchal Southern mother. The main drawback of this movie is its treatment of the American football scene, which is a bit too typical.

No. 6: ‘An Education’

This is the best coming-of-age movie to hit the screen in a long time. The film won over critics with it’s light and fresh approach, and its twisted storytelling gives it an edge over other lesser girl-gets-whisked-off-feet-by-older-man stories. This movie is also Oscar-worthy because of Carey Mulligan, who has been dubbed by many as the new Audrey Hepburn for her classic beauty, and her irresistible on-screen presence. Directed by Lone Scherfig, this movie will not win because it’s very unlikely that a British indie film would pick up the statue for best picture. This romance flick also seems to be tailored for a younger audience, depriving itself of votes from the Academy’s older members.

No. 5: ‘Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire’

Gabourey Sidibe’s compelling performance as an obese, poor, illiterate, HIV-positive and pregnant 16-year-old school girl, along with Mo’Nique’s convincing portrayal of a heartless, abusive mother, make “Precious” the most emotionally engaging, if not draining, movie of the year.

Lee Daniels’ hard-hitting movie is raw and honest, but I never root for an adaptation of a book, because I feel it lacks originality. Furthermore, this movie could be too depressing for some of the voting members.

No 4: ‘Inglourious Basterds’

Finally, Quentin Tarantino’s cinematic ingenuity has earned him a best picture nomination. Tarantino displays his directing and script-writing prowess ­— not to mention his boldness in rewriting the ending of World War II. Undoubtedly, this film is the most artistic movie among the nominees, which may end up resulting in its demise. More conservative members of the Academy may find “Inglourious,” too fun and artsy for an Oscar, and members who prefer something more “real,” will put other films at the top of their ballot.

No. 3: ‘Up in the Air’

The recession fable “Up in the Air” is funny, engaging and, most importantly, relevant. Jason Reitman sheds an unconventional, Juno-esque light on the impact of the global downturn on the lives of Americans, and George Clooney’s smart, comedic performance earned him a second shot at a best actor award. Proponents of the drama genre will certainly root for this movie. The reason this movie won’t take top prize has nothing to do with its limitations, but because the stage has been set for a colossal battle between 2009’s two best movies.

And the Oscar Goes to... ‘Avatar’ vs. ‘Hurt Locker’

James Cameron’s “Avatar” has forever changed the course of cinema with it’s spectacular, mind-blowing 3D technology. His sci-fi masterpiece also happens to be the top-grossing film in history. But is that enough to win the best picture?

First, the central premise of “Avatar” is all-too-familiar, if not outright unoriginal. It has a strong resemblance to Disney’s “Pocahontas” and the Kevin Costner film “Dances with Wolves” — or any of the other historical US invasion scenarios, in fact.

Moreover, Cameron’s spectacle suffers from a plague of cliches. Jake Sully’s assimilation with the Na’vi people, romance with Neytiri and eventual abandonment of the militaristic humans are all hackneyed plot developments.

“Avatar,” just like “Up,” misses one crucial ingredient for a great movie: great acting — that is unless we start considering computer-generated humanoids to be real actors. Consequently, the movie lacks the emotional engagement that only human actors can provide, and makes “Avatar,” a little bit too Disney.

Kathry Bigelow’s “Hurt Locker,” on the other hand, offers much more than just great special effects. It is just one in a field of movies about the Iraq quagmire, but Bigelow’s depiction of the members of a bomb disposal unit brings a fresh angle to the war story.

It brings to the table mind-numbing, heart-pumping intensity in a series of bomb-defusing scenes, but also weaves together an emotional story out of the bonds between its three main characters.

“Hurt Locker” also offers something that “Avatar” doesn’t: Jeremy Renner and his compelling performance as the wild, bomb diffuser with an addiction to danger. Renner’s commanding portrayal earned him a nod from the Academy for best actor.

My last consideration has to do with the new preferential voting system.

“Avatar” is one of those love-it-or-hate-it movies. The voting members who love it will give it the top spot, but those who hate it, may give “Avatar” a spot on the lower end of their card.

“Hurt Locker,” on the other hand, is more likely to consistently place within the top three on ballots, which gives it a greater probability of winning the Oscar. With all that taken into consideration, my prediction for the best picture must go to “Hurt Locker.”