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Jakarta. Unusually heavy rainfall brought on by the La Nina weather phenomenon have hammered Indonesia in recent months, leading to a pronounced drop in resource extraction and agricultural output.

The unusually wet weather has resulted in projections of slumping export volumes of tin, coal, coffee, palm oil and other commodities.

The Trade Ministry said on Monday that tin shipments from Indonesia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, may drop 19 percent this year, adding to signs of a trade slump that has helped make tin this year’s best performing base-metal by price.

Exports could plunge to about 80,000 metric tons in 2010, down from 99,287 tons in 2009, said Alberth Tubogu, export director for mining and industry products at the Trade Ministry.

His prediction is in line with an August forecast from the Energy Ministry for a 20 percent decline in output.

According to the Trade Ministry, tin shipments from Indonesia in the first seven months of this year fell 12 percent from a year earlier to 52,133 tons.

Alberth said “unpredictable weather” has affected tin production in Bangka-Belitung Islands, the province that accounts for most of the nation’s production.

“Some producers may use their inventory to increase sales now that the price is gaining, but I doubt it will help much,” Alberth said.

“I spoke with exporters last week and they said they don’t have a lot of tin stockpiles — especially the small smelters — after heavy rain reduced ore supplies.”

Macquarie Group warned this month that global tin supply may lag behind usage “through next year at least,” bolstering prices.

Accordingly, tin futures on the London Metal Exchange have rallied to their highest price since July 2008, driven by the fall in supplies from Indonesia, lower stockpiles and rising demand.

Tin, used as packaging and solder, has advanced about 40 percent in London this year, beating second-placed nickel’s 27 percent jump.

The contract, which reached a record $25,500 a ton in May 2008, peaked at $23,800 on Sept. 17 and traded at $23,702 at 4:29 p.m. in Singapore on Monday after gaining 0.4 percent.

Meanwhile, Rachim Kartabrata, executive secretary of the Indonesian Coffee Exporters Association (AEKI), told the Jakarta Globe last week that coffee exports this year would drop by about 15 percent, from 400,000 tons to 340,000 tons.

Rachim said prolonged rain in South Sumatra, a center of coffee production, was partly to blame, as were lower levels of stock left over from last year.

Suharto Honggokusumo, executive director of the Indonesian Rubber Producers Association (Gapkindo), told the Globe that the heavy rain had limited the production of rubber tappers.

But he said export levels would hold steady thanks to a 24 percent surge in exports during the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.

The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said last month that the country was experiencing its most extreme weather on record, including unusually heavy rain linked to La Nina. La Nina is expected to persist through early 2011.

The Agriculture Ministry said the extreme weather had affected agricultural output, especially in Java, of melons, mangoes and mushrooms.

The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) and the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki) said last month that rain had hit their commodities.

The APBI said national output was likely to miss its target, while Gapki said output could fall 10 percent this year.

 
Reuters, JG