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G-20 to Work on Global Balancing As Sea of Troubles Comes Knocking
April 13, 2011

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Washington. As the Group of 20 seeks consensus on how to lay a more solid foundation for long-term growth, oil prices are near a 32-month high and prices for other commodities, such as corn and gold, are at record levels. And hot money flows into emerging markets have driven fears over the risk of asset bubbles.

Oil prices have retreated this week as Goldman Sachs warned of a price reversal and the International Energy Agency said the high prices are beginning to curb economic growth.

France, the host of the G-20 session, which occurs on the sidelines of semiannual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, wants to build on a hard-fought agreement in February on indicators for measuring global imbalances.

This time, French officials say the G-20 should not only agree on how to identify those causing imbalances but also devise a way to red-flag those most responsible.

“We hope to reach a deal on the methodology this week,” a French source said.

“We will demand more of the economies which are systemic than the economies which are not,” they added.

A senior US Treasury official said the G-20 hoped to make progress on guidelines for identifying imbalances this week and would soon be able to list countries with the biggest problems.

Progress has been slow. China in February refused to accept consideration of excessive accumulation of foreign currency reserves as an indicator of possible imbalances.

The US official acknowledged the controversy around the process was a sign of progress that views are converging. “I think it is contentious because it is plowing new ground.”

France hopes a road map encompassing not only the indicators to gauge imbalances but a means for applying them can be signed at a summit it will host in November.

The US Treasury official cited a heightened awareness among Chinese officials about the need to rebalance its economy to rely less on exports and more on domestic consumption.

The Group of Seven club of developed countries meets tonight and the US official said it was likely to hold to its long-standing position that “excessive volatility” in currency exchange markets was unacceptable.

The G-7 — the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan — conducted a rare coordinated intervention in currency markets last month after the Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the country’s earthquake.

French officials also want to advance with rules for curbing volatility in commodities prices although officials said there was no likelihood of an agreement in Washington on a proposal to allow trading limits in commoditie s markets.

France, G-20 chair this year, wants to make progress toward a code of conduct setting conditions for the first time on the use of controls to tame the type of hot money flows that are threatening to destabilize many emerging markets.

The IMF agrees that capital controls can be useful at times, but should be seen as a last resort.

In a communique on Friday, the G-20 is expected to say the recovery from the 2007-09 financial crisis is intact despite damage from Japan’s earthquake and political instability in North Africa and the Middle East, officials say.

Reuters