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Toyota Inches Back to Top on Growth
December 22, 2011

Toyota Motor forecast a 20 percent jump in global sales to a record 8.48 million vehicles next year as it claws back from this year’s output losses caused by natural disasters in Japan and Thailand. (AP Photo) Toyota Motor forecast a 20 percent jump in global sales to a record 8.48 million vehicles next year as it claws back from this year’s output losses caused by natural disasters in Japan and Thailand. (AP Photo)
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Tokyo. Toyota Motor forecast a 20 percent jump in global sales to a record 8.48 million vehicles next year as it claws back from this year’s output losses caused by natural disasters in Japan and Thailand.

Toyota overtook General Motors as the world’s top-selling automaker in 2008 but is set to lose that crown this year as supply-chain disruptions from the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan and flooding in Thailand cut production around the world.

With estimated sales this year of 7.90 million vehicles for the group, which includes units Daihatsu Motor and Hino Motors, Toyota will likely rank third behind General Motors and Volkswagen.

Toyota could regain the top ranking next year as it builds inventory to meet pent-up demand and adds output capacity in China and Brazil, among other countries. GM and VW have not disclosed their 2012 sales plans, and Toyota did not provide group forecasts.

“The reason they lost sales this year was because they couldn’t build the cars. Now that they can, it’s possible they’ll take back the top spot,” said Satoru Takada, analyst at Tokyo-based T.I.W. “But it depends on which markets the growth will come from,” he said, noting that Toyota was dominant in Southeast Asia and the Middle East but faces tougher competition in China and South America.

Toyota’s parent-only plan for 2012 beats its previous peak of 8.43 million vehicles in 2007.

“I believe the target is achievable given Toyota is quickly recovering production and launching new models,” said Lee Hyun-soo, an analyst at Kiwoom Securities in Seoul. “There will be cut-throat competition between Toyota, GM and Volkswagen for the top spot in the global market next year.”

Toyota president Akio Toyoda has said that he was not interested in a race to be the biggest automaker, while VW has a goal of selling 10 million vehicles to grab the title by 2018. Measured by stock value, Toyota is way above its rivals, at $111 billion -- more than VW and GM combined.

At its peak in 2007, however, Toyota was valued at more than twice that, and analysts said a sales recovery would struggle to translate into similar profit gains at today’s exchange rates.

Toyota’s shares have lost 22 percent so far this year and are down 70 percent from a peak in early 2007, when the dollar fetched around 120 yen. On Thursday, they fell 0.6 percent in a Tokyo market that lost 0.8 percent.

Flooding in Thailand the past two months has disrupted production for Toyota and other car makers.

Thailand’s vehicle production tumbled 85 percent in November to the lowest level in more than 12 years after severe flooding disrupted supply chains, according to the Federation of Thai Industries.

Production totaled 23,695 units in November, 52 percent less than a month earlier, the group said in a statement.

Output from January through November amounted to 1.4 million units, a drop of 9.9 percent from the previous year, it said.

Reuters, Bloomberg