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Hanoi. Coffee trading in Asia would pick up next month when new beans from Vietnam’s harvest pour in and prices stabilize, traders said on Thursday.

Roasters in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest robusta producer after Vietnam, have been seeking to buy Vietnamese beans for loading from November, as the Indonesian harvest will not start until next March, traders said.

“Several Indonesian companies have contacted us since September, frequently asking for coffee but we do not have fresh beans yet,” a Vietnamese exporter said.

New beans will come early next month, the harvest will peak from mid-November and supply will be ample in December, said the exporter based in Daklak, Vietnam’s top growing province.

“It has been rainy and cloudy, so only a very tiny part of cherries has turned red,” said another trader during a tour in the Central Highlands coffee belt.

Vietnam began its 2011/2012 coffee crop year on Oct. 1. 

A Reuters poll showed output could rise to a new record, with a median estimate of 21 million bags, from 18.5 million bags in 2010/11, and well above the 19.3 million bags of 2006/07, its previous record.    

Vietnamese beans grade 2, 5 percent black and broken was quoted at premiums of $150-$200 a tonne to London’s November contract for outright shipment, but very few deals were sealed due to thin stocks and high prices.

For loading from December, grade 2 beans stood at discounts of $50-$60 a tonne to London’s January, while foreign buyers sought discounts as wide as $100-$120 a tonne.

“Both sides do not meet over this pricing, so buyers tend to wait for prices to stabilise when the harvest peaks,” another Vietnamese trader said.

A Singapore-based trader said Vietnamese beans were traded at a $50 discount to London’s January for December loading. 

Indonesian crop small

Having faced a shortage of coffee at home after a small crop while consumption has been rising, Indonesian roasters sought to import Vietnamese beans grade 1 at premiums of $50 a tonne to London’s March contract. 

Indonesian robusta grade 4, 80 defect was offered at premiums of $400-$500 to London’s November, with the higher end nearing a record of $550 in August, regional traders said. Indonesia’s 2010/2011 output fell 19.4 percent to 9.17 million 60-kg bags from 11.38 million bags in the previous season, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said in its September report released on Tuesday.

“The 2011 crop is over now and no stocks are left here,” a trader said by telephone from Bandar Lampung, the provincial capital of Lampung in Sumatra.

“Some people are looking for Vietnamese beans from next month,” he said.

Indonesia’s robusta coffee exports from the main growing area in southern Sumatra fell 70.6 percent in September from the same month a year earlier to 10,435 tonnes, or 174,000 bags, government trade data showed. 

Monthly export between this month and December could fall to 5,000 tonnes, the trader in Bandar Lampung said.   Indonesia’s 2010/2011 coffee export fell 11.5 percent from the previous season to 5.26 million bags, the ICO report said.

Week ahead

The weather outlook in Vietnam remains uncertain, with rains forecast in the Central Highlands this week and a new storm is forecast to enter the South China Sea on Friday. 

Storms and typhoons rarely hit the coffee belt but rain could disrupt the harvest and farmers’ outdoor drying, thus worsening the export quality as happened last November.

“If there is no rain, the harvest could start well even when it is cloudy, and farmers can use ovens for drying,” a Ho Chi Minh City-based trader said.     

Reuters