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The tale had Tom Clancy written all over it, with the CIA investigating a far-off economy out of concern that its collapse might pose problems for America.

That reportedly happened in 2002 as Japanese deflation threatened to spread around the globe. If I were a CIA bigwig, I would now be setting up task forces on risks coming from China.

When the US secretary of state says the record US budget deficit and debt are stoking national-security concerns, you know the world is off kilter. Meanwhile, short-seller Jim Chanos is finding more and more company as he bets on a Chinese crash.

It’s time to consider the systemic fallout from a Chinese crisis. It could cause recessions around the world.

As 2010 unfolds, such views are developing legs. It’s one thing when Chanos, of New York-based Kynikos Associates, speaks of a bust. Ditto for Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report in Hong Kong. It’s quite another when the likes of Harvard University’s Kenneth Rogoff warn of a collapse of China’s debt-fueled bubble within 10 years.

The former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund can’t be dismissed as talking his investment position. What’s more, Rogoff offers perhaps the simplest reason why China may falter: it’s due.

Remember that five of the most frightening words in economics are: “This time things are different.” Well, can you see where this story is going?

“If there’s a this-time-is-different story in the world right now, it’s China,” Rogoff said at a conference in Tokyo last week. People, he added, say China “won’t have a financial crisis because there’s central planning, because there’s a high savings rate, because there’s a large pool of labor. I say, of course China will have a financial crisis one day.”

It’s a point that few China bulls allow. For all the merits of China’s model it’s doubtful it can beat the system, so to speak. No emerging nation has avoided a crisis that sent growth reeling and markets plunging. Not one.

If a Chinese crisis occurs, it won’t be an entirely unexpected event. Vitaliy Katsenelson of Investment Management Associates in Denver, for example, raised eyebrows with a Feb. 12 report titled “China: The Mother of All Black Swans.”

Could China be the first emerging economy to escape trouble? It’s comforting to think so and officials in Beijing have had a great year. Stimulus efforts are driving growth of about 10 percent and investors haven’t profited from bets against China.

China will need to spend even more to maintain rapid growth. Japan is mired in deflation, Europe is struggling to keep Greece afloat and US unemployment is worsening.

Stimulus efforts were always about holding Asia over until US consumers recovered. The worst recession since the 1930s is still filtering through the biggest economy. So, China is largely on its own in a hostile global environment. Trouble there is worth exploring before it’s too late.

“We would learn just how important China is when that happens,” Rogoff said.

Nomura Holdings says China may provide more than a third of world growth this year as it surpasses Japan’s economy. China’s influence explains why Hillary Clinton has US Treasuries on her mind. We first saw that preoccupation in February 2009, when Clinton made her maiden trip to Beijing as secretary of state. She shelved human-rights issues in favor of talking up debt.

The White House projects a $1.6 trillion budget deficit for the 2010 fiscal year, following $1.4 trillion in 2009. It leaves Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner with quite a bond-sales job. Only, China might not be a reliable buyer of US debt if it needs that money at home to boost growth.

Victor Shih of Northwestern University is focusing on another $1.6 trillion figure. That’s how much debt he estimates China’s local governments are sitting on. If Shih’s argument is correct, local debt alone is one-third of China’s 2009 gross domestic product and 70 percent of foreign-exchange reserves.

Between the US and China, we’re talking lots and lots of debt. Any unraveling on either side of the Pacific would devastate the global economy. It’s becoming less of a Black Swan scenario and more a crisis unfolding in slow motion. G-2 risks should be of growing concern to investors, the CIA and perhaps even thriller writers.

William Pesek is a Bloomberg columnist.