BI Backs Inflation Prediction
Bloomberg & Jakarta Globe | January 22, 2010
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Bank Indonesia is “confident” of the accuracy of its 2010 inflation forecast of 4 percent to 6 percent, senior deputy governor Darmin Nasution said on Friday.
The central bank made the prediction on Jan. 6.
The projection takes into account rising prices and a recovery in the global economy, Darmin said.
Domestic inflation stayed near 10-year lows in December, giving the bank more time before it joins other Asian central banks in raising borrowing costs.
The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 6.5 percent for a fifth month on Jan. 6, saying it wasn’t concerned about inflationary pressures in the first half.
Inflation will probably be “relatively tame” at about 5.3 percent this year, Helmi Arman, an economist at PT Bank Danamon Indonesia, said in a research note earlier this week.
Economic growth will probably be “close to 5.2 percent,” the note said. “The odds are rising for the BI rate to stay at 6.5 percent this year, which paves the way for a smoother recovery of commercial bank credit growth.”
Low inflation and a decline in borrowing costs may spur consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of the $514 billion domestic economy.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati has said the rising prices of commodities, such as oil and food, will pose a “big risk” this year as the global economy recovers.
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