William Pesek

From Helicopter Ben To Beijing Bernanke

You’ve heard of “Helicopter Ben.” Now it’s time to meet “Beijing Ben.”

The first of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s monikers evolved out of a 2002 speech in which he referenced Milton Friedman’s comments comparing unorthodox policies to dropping money from a helicopter. The second is how some are referring to Bernanke’s ever-increasing role in Asia.

From Beijing to Hanoi, officials are concerned that low US interest rates are fueling bubbles. It’s the clearest sign yet that Asian officials are worried about bubbles.

Investors getting used to double-digit stock gains in Asia should expect a much more challenging environment in 2010. More activist policies aimed at tempering bubbles will see to that. No, you shouldn’t flee the world’s most dynamic economic region. Yet nor should you bet on easy profits.

The Fed is already under fire back home. How did it manage to go global with its public-relations problems? By being at least as good a currency manipulator as China.

That’s quite a feat and it sets the Fed and Asia up for a difficult 2010. Regulators in Hong Kong, Seoul and Singapore have called on banks to clamp down on risky loans. Central banks are signaling a readiness to act. Thanks to the Fed, they must pick up the pace. It won’t be easy; such steps may run afoul of politicians and Asia’s vast populations.

China’s and Japan’s accusations of US protectionism are a bit silly. True, faced with 10 percent unemployment, the US is looking out for itself and tweaking policies accordingly. Yet Asia’s two biggest economies are hardly in a position to bellyache about unfair trade practices.

The dollar is a valid concern, putting the focus on Bernanke and his policy-making colleagues.

The internationalization of the Fed has fascinated economists for two decades. Mexico in 1994, Asia in 1997 and Russia in the late 1990s — the Fed has been called upon to save the world in each case. From South Korea to Chile, investors often care more about what happens in Washington than they do about actions taken locally.

That isn’t always lost on the Fed. In October 2008, it provided $30 billion each to the central banks of Brazil, Korea, Mexico and Singapore. The move bestowed a “Good Housekeeping” seal on economies following responsible policies yet feeling the brunt of the credit crisis.

The trouble is, the US’s policies have been less than responsible of late.

Bernanke inherited a bad situation in 2006 from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, he of the notorious “Greenspan put.” Greenspan, a disciple of philosopher Ayn Rand, talked a good game of letting free markets work their magic. And yet without fail, he was there to rescue markets and investors with lower rates when things got dicey.

A year and half later, the credit crisis was heating up. Bernanke cut rates toward zero and embarked on a Japan-like quantitative-easing experiment. Just as in Japan, the problems had more to do with a malfunctioning financial system and a lack of trust than the supply of money.

Rather than boost US lending, liquidity zoomed to Asia. “There is so much hot money coming, and this is really driven by the Fed’s interest-rate policy,” says Andy Xie, former chief Asian economist for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. Asia isn’t blameless here. The failure to create larger debt markets leaves the region’s equity arena more susceptible to booms and busts.

In the hysteria over China’s currency, though, Xie says markets are giving what he sees as the world’s biggest currency manipulator a pass. The so-called dollar-carry trade is driving highly speculative investments in Asian stock, bond and real-estate markets. It will only cool off, he says, when Fed rates are at 4 percent or 5 percent.

That’s a long way from today’s near-zero target. Nor does the Fed seem to be considering overseas experiences in its decisions. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said last week it’s not “practical” to adjust US policy to account for surging Asian markets.

The onus is on Asia to clean up Beijing Ben’s liquidity mess. It will require much bigger mops than the region has used thus far.

William Pesek is a Bloomberg columnist.

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