Hope for EU Exporters As Debt Worries Drive Euro to 8-Month Low
February 09, 2010
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Brussels. Market panic over strained Greek, Portuguese and Spanish deficits has generated a silver lining for exporters in the euro zone, analysts said.
A sustained fall in the strength of the euro — from levels where national leaders were panicking at the thought of China and the United States of snatching away sales — has given renewed hope.
The euro, which is shared by 16 economies across continental Europe, led by Germany and France, fell last week to $1.3586 — its lowest against the greenback in eight months.
It was still only just above $1.37 this week. The slide remains deeply worrisome because it reflects fears over deteriorating debts for weak euro-zone countries, and investors’ decisions to buy safer assets. But after months of growing political disquiet during which China overtook Germany as the world’s top exporter, the changed currency balance is being seen as a chance to boost Europe’s trade with the rest of the world.
The weaker euro “is probably one of the beneficial outcomes of what is happening at the moment,” said Howard Archer, chief economist for IHS Global Insight, a research consultant in London. The fall is “bound to be a boon to European exporters,” Archer added.
“While Germany may be pretty irked by what’s going on in Greece, its exporters are still probably licking their lips.”
After a meeting of international economic powers in Canada on Saturday, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde offered similar optimism.
“We have always complained about the dollar being too strong,” she said. “This is clearly an improvement.”
European employers were already warning in 2007 that the euro was too high at over $1.40. In the summer of 2008, it rose above $1.60.
Falling later that year, the euro then crept back up right through 2009 — causing increasing consternation that Europe’s fledgling and fragile recovery, far off the pace in either China or the United States, could be derailed.
Euro-zone growth was just 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2009, whereas the United States posted 5.7 percent growth in the fourth quarter and the International Monetary Fund predicts 10 percent for China in 2010.
Agence France-Presse
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