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Indonesia a Global Financial ‘Safe Haven’: Central Bank
Aloysius Unditu | January 18, 2012

Indonesia had its sovereign debt rating raised by Moody’s to investment level for the first time in 14 years on Wednesday, citing the country’s resilience to large external shocks. (Agency Photo) Indonesia had its sovereign debt rating raised by Moody’s to investment level for the first time in 14 years on Wednesday, citing the country’s resilience to large external shocks. (Agency Photo)
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Indonesian monetary policy makers welcomed Wednesday’s rating upgrade by Moody’s Investors Service on its sovereign debt as a vote of confidence in the country’s strong economic fundamentals and prudent debt management.

A rating upgrade means Southeast Asia’s largest economy can reduce financing costs if it wants to tap global investors this year, they said.

“It is a vote of confidence by international rating agencies that Indonesia’s economy remains resilient amid this global slowdown,’’ Hartadi Sarwono, a Bank Indonesia deputy governor, said in a text message to the Jakarta Globe on Wednesday.

“That stable outlook will attract more foreign investors to invest into Indonesia’s debt and stock markets.”

Indonesia had its sovereign debt rating raised by Moody’s to investment level for the first time in more than 14 years on Wednesday, citing the country’s resilience to large external shocks.

The US rating agency raised the government’s foreign and local currency bond ratings one notch to Baa3 from Ba1. Indonesia had lost its investment level rating in 1997, when the financial crisis pushed the country to devalue the rupiah.

“Indonesia will become a safe-haven country,’’ Hartadi said. As a safe-haven nation, investment would be stable and less prone to sharp day-to-day fluctuations in global financial markets.

Debt dealers and currency analysts in Jakarta say that bond prices are expected to increase with the recent rating, meaning that their yields will decline.

The yield on the Indonesia’s five-year bonds fell to 4.9 percent on Wednesday from 5.2 percent on Tuesday, while the ten-year yield fell to 5.84 percent from 6.1 percent, according to the Indonesia Bond Pricing Agency. Bond yields move in the opposite direction to price.

The rupiah rose 0.5 percent to 9,160 against the dollar, according to Bank Indonesia data.

Finance Ministry official Rahmat Waluyanto said on Wednesday that the cost of borrowing, both in rupiah and dollar-denominated bonds, would fall as a result of the direct impact from the rating upgrade.

“The default-risk premium will be reduced, demand for government bonds will increase and the domestic financial market will stabilize,’’ Rahmat said in a text message. “As the domestic market stabilizes, the potential for a sudden reversal is expected to decline.”

Indonesia’s financial markets are deemed shallow, meaning that there are not many instruments available for investors to invest in, compared to larger markets such as in the United States and Japan, and large investment inflows and outflows may bring big price changes.

Offshore investors, which account for the bulk of portfolio investment in the country’s high-yielding assets, may pose major risks should market sentiment deteriorate, analysts say.

Foreign ownership of Indonesian bonds rose by almost Rp 5 trillion to Rp 223 trillion from September to the start of this week, according to the debt management office. International investors pulled out of Indonesia in the third quarter for safe haven assets such as the dollar, as Europe’s debt crisis worsened.

There are signs confidence is returning to Indonesia, such as last week’s sale of $1.75 billion bonds, in which investors bid more than double the amount on offer, its first bond sale since Fitch raised Indonesia’s rating to investment level on Dec. 15.

Rahmat said Moody’s upgrade should help the country get better value for its upcoming global Islamic bond sale. Indonesia plans to sell global Islamic bonds, called sukuk, in the first half to help plug the country’s budget deficit, which is forecast to reach 1.5 percent of gross domestic product this year.