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The economy grew at a slower pace in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the previous quarter largely due to lower private consumption and an anticipated contraction in exports due to weaker demand from global markets, according to the consensus among analysts from a number of domestic and overseas institutions.

But the economists said the slowdown in private consumption was not as bad as expected, which prevented the economy from sliding significantly.

“We estimate that the economy grew 3.5 percent year-on-year in the quarter, slower than the 4.4 percent recorded in the first quarter,” said Gundy Cahyadi, an economist at financial analysis firm IDEAGlobal in Singapore. He added that the slower annualized pace was mostly caused by the high base effect produced in the second quarter of 2008, when global commodity prices were at their peak.

The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is set to announce the quarterly GDP figures today. Earlier figures from the agency showed that the economy expanded 4.4 percent in the first quarter from the year-earlier period, slowing from 5.2 percent in the last quarter of 2008. Despite the slowdown, the country still ranked among the best performers in Southeast Asia.

In the first quarter, strong private consumption helped to offset slowing exports, which shrank by 19.1 percent from the year-earlier period. The central bank has cut its key interest rate by a total of 275 basis points since December last year in a bid to provide a conducive environment for private consumption to grow, although commercial banks have responded slowly.

Gundy said private consumption, which he predicted grew by 5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, should have provided underlying support for the economy against the expected contraction in exports.

Although consumer spending grew by 4.8 percent year-on-year during the first three months, IDEAGlobal says the economy is still on course to expand in a 4.2-4.5 percent range in 2009.

In a research note, Helmi Arman, an economist at Bank Danamon in Jakarta, tipped the economy to have grown by 3.52 percent in the second quarter.

“Indicators such as cement consumption, commercial vehicle sales and imports of capital goods also indicate a recovery. However, the high base effect from last year will still result in a lower year-on-year figure,” Helmi said.

More optimistic were HSBC and Citigroup, who predicted that the economy grew at 3.8 percent and 4 percent, respectively, during April through June.

Their figures reflect those in the central bank’s quarterly report, which said the economy was likely to have slowed further in the second quarter, growing on an annualized basis by 3.7 percent to 4 percent.

The central bank also said that the economy has been hurt by slumping exports, which had led to weak production-capacity utilization and postponement of investment plans.

The report also said the contraction in exports was believed to have slowed slightly in the second quarter to about 17 percent.

However, household consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the domestic economy, is predicted to have expanded by between 3.8 percent and 4.5 percent in the second quarter, down from 4.8 percent in the first.