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Indonesia’s Banks Are Stable: Moody’s
Muhamad Al Azhari | December 13, 2011

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The outlook for Indonesia’s $376 billion banking sector remains stable, said rating agency Moody’s Investors Service, citing the nation’s strong domestic economy that has helped to insulate lenders from the global economic turbulence.

Moody’s expects Indonesia’s economy to grow 6 percent in 2012, slower than the Indonesian government’s 6.6 percent forecast and the central bank’s 6.3 percent estimate. The government has forecast the economy to expand by 6.5 percent this year, after growing 6.1 percent in 2010.

The slower economic growth will prompt the pace of bank lending growth to moderate to 18 percent to 20 percent in 2012 from 20 percent this year, according to Moody’s, which cited “marginally-slower economic expansion and the banks’ tightening liquidity in general.”

Bank Indonesia forecasts lending at the nation’s 120 commercial banks to rise 27 percent in 2012, up from an expected 24 percent increase this year.

However, Moody’s said Indonesia’s economic growth remained “robust” in contrast to neighbors that “suffered slowdowns from weaker global demand or disruptions from large-scale natural disasters.”

“We expect the [Indonesian] banks’ positive credit attributes such as high loan growth, wide interest margins and low provisioning costs owing to good asset quality to continue in the next 12 to 18 months and sustain the system’s resilience,” says Beatrice Woo, a Moody’s vice president and senior credit officer.

Moody’s said that Bank Indonesia’s stance to favor growth by lowering its benchmark interest rate to a new low of 6 percent, from 6.75 percent, over two policy meetings in October and November, would help lenders withstand the global economic storm. The central bank kept its rate unchanged at last week’s monthly meeting.

“Asset quality will be stable, while the [banking] system’s non-performing loans ratio should remain at current historic lows of 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent,” Moody’s said in a statement.

Moody’s has ratings on nine Indonesian commercial banks include Bank Mandiri, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Bank Central Asia and Bank Negara Indonesia.