Welcome Guest   |  Login   |   Signup
JG Logo
Thu, May 24, 2012
Archive Search

Indonesia’s Economy to Be in World’s Top Six in 2030: Standard Chartered
Dion Bisara | November 27, 2011

Share This Page
141
58
0
8
Share with google+ :


Post a comment
Please login to post comment

Comments

DrDez
7:14pm Nov 29, 2011

Biggest challenges: education, wealth distribution and job creation

A nation may be no1 GDP in the world but with huge swathes living in poverty without clean water, sanitation, electricity etc etc it is meaningless - Look to India as an example or China even.

63% of Indonesians middle class in 8 years time? Really based upon what? SC are making assumptions on wealth distribution that simply will not happen

But SC are correct and there is a great opportunity here - we just need to educate the people to take advantage of it - However we cannot risk educating people because of the risks to the political / business / religious / military elites

A bit of a conundrum yes???

Kesiangan
6:50pm Nov 29, 2011

And also still in the top ten of the world's most corrup countries.

jusdogin
3:37pm Nov 29, 2011

Just done the math 8% annual growth we get to 2.8trillion by 2030 - thats 8% flat

To get to 9trillion we need flat growth of 16% for 18 years.

Really do you think this will happen?

I must have got the math wrong or the article is [edit]... dunno man


jusdogin
3:26pm Nov 29, 2011

Hey Penyar man - Indonesia has been independent for 66 years and we still bicker, fight, kill and attack each other, we got so much poverty its just in ya face 24/7, we have so much money yet we cant get electric or even roads or even clean water. But we always seem to find sum mutha to blame

papua might just be the same - my sis is marriec to a guy from timor and they live thre and they would not take indonesia if u paid them a million buck man

-Lauren-
9:24am Nov 29, 2011

Penyihir- At least Papuans won't feel the butts of Indonesian rifles whacking them in the back of the heads when they want to publicly communicate. Of course it won't mean automatic prosperity, but what's the bet that if Papua does take control of its own resources, Indonesia might not make the top 6 economies? And if Bali did get sick of the Indonesian majority exploiting its unique culture and went solo, it too would take its lucrative tourist trade with it. Don't forget where Indo's wealth comes from. It's mostly primary resources. Once all that's been pimped out you'd better hope you've got a country of skilled workers, scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs.

People migrating from the countryside to cities, a rising middle class and abundant natural resources are three key factors that could make Indonesia one of the world’s 10 largest economies in 2020 and among the top six in 2030, Standard Chartered said in a report last week.

Indonesia’s economic growth since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis “has often been overshadowed by the rise of China and India,” the British bank said in a special economic report on Indonesia. “However, given its track record in recent years and the large size of its population, we believe Indonesia deserves a prominent place on the radar screen of international corporates and investors.”

The lender pointed out that Indonesia, which has a population of around 240 million, is the biggest economy in Southeast Asia and is a member of the Group of 20 nations.

“We believe its importance will continue to rise in the years ahead,” according to the report, which was written by a group of analysts including Tai Hui, regional head of research in Southeast Asia, and Fauzi Ichsan, senior economist in Jakarta.

The bank expects Indonesia’s current $708 billion economy to rise to $9 trillion by 2030, which would make it the largest economy in size after China, the United States, India, Brazil and Japan. Indonesia’s economy would be bigger than Germany, Mexico, France and Britain, according to the lender.

Standard Chartered forecast that in the next 20 years, Java, which makes up 7 percent of the country’s total land area and is home to the nation’s capital, will be home to fewer people. Last year, it was home to 58 percent of the population.

The bank said that in 2020, the island would be home to 55.8 percent of Indonesians and 53.9 percent in 2030. Improvement in transportation infrastructure and faster economic development in outer islands will draw more people to move to cities outside Java, the bank said.

The total size of Indonesia’s middle class may rise to 171 million in 2020, or 63 percent of the population. In 2030, it may reach 244 million, or 78 percent of people living in the country.

Indonesia, a major producer of coal, tin, copper, gold and agricultural products, could further benefit as prices for commodities are expected to continue rising in the coming years, it said.