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Inflation accelerated for the first time in seven months in August, as Idul Fitri festivities pushed up the cost of food, clothing and transportation, while the soaring gold price was blamed for higher-than-expected core inflation.

Analysts said, however, the rise in consumer prices had been expected and inflation still looked “benign” for the rest of the year, providing solid ground for the central bank to keep its key interest rate steady at its policy meeting on Thursday.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 4.79 percent in August from a year earlier, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported on Monday. That was slightly higher than the median estimate of a 4.74 percent increase of five economists surveyed by the Jakarta Globe. Inflation had been slowing since January and the rate had been at a 14-month low in July at 4.61 percent.

A slight concern came from the 5.15 percent rise in core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. The increase was the first time in the past three years that it climbed above 5 percent.

The central bank had said earlier in the year that core inflation rising above 5 percent could trigger a tightening in monetary policy, meaning a rate increase.

“The Ramadan fasting month and Idul Fitri holiday effect have been reflected in the rise of food and transportation service prices, which have contributed around 36 percent and 13 percent, respectively, to the headline monthly inflation in August,” said Anton Hermanto Gunawan, chief economist at Bank Danamon Indonesia.

Still, Anton said, without taking into account the soaring gold price and given that there will be no subsidized fuel price increase, the trend of inflation for this year “still looks relatively benign.”

Sasmito Hadi Wibowo, director of price statistics at BPS, blamed the rising gold price on global markets as investors flocked to the commodity as a safe haven amid renewed fears on the slow pace of global economic recovery.

The trend coincided with the increasing appetite for gold in Indonesia as consumers tend to buy gold jewelry to show off to their families when going back to their hometowns during the holidays, he said.

“With uncertainties in the US and the euro zone, investor sentiment is weak and they are afraid to take on more risk. As such, gold looks likely to stay elevated as long as these risks are around. Moreover, US dollar weakness has also contributed to the surge in gold prices. But once there are clear signs of a recovery, gold prices would likely take a dip,” said Eugene Leow, an economist at DBS Group Research in Singapore.

Analysts said, however, that Bank Indonesia, the central bank — which has kept its BI rate at 6.75 percent after raising it by a quarter percentage point in February — is unlikely to tighten the rate in its Thursday meeting.

“BI is unlikely to be perturbed by the core inflation reading, even if it has breached the 5 percent psychological threshold that they floated earlier this year,” Wellian Wiranto, an economist at HSBC in Singapore, said on Monday. “To the extent that gold prices — which bore the burden of both a higher global gold price and elevated seasonal demand — may be temporary.

“BI is most likely going to adopt a wait-and-see attitude to it. Particularly since headline inflation has stayed relatively friendly this time around, with food supply ample enough to meet higher seasonal demand,” Wellian added.

David Sumual, an economist at Bank Central Asia, shared the same view as Wellian, saying that the central bank may hold the rate for the rest of the year if domestic inflation pressure remains “tame”.

On Monday, BPS also announced trade data. It said exports rose 40 percent year-on-year in July to $17.43 billion, slower than the 49 percent annual increase in June, as volatility in international markets started impacting the nation’s main commodity shipments overseas. BPS said exports of crude palm oil fell to $1.1 billion in July from $2.2 billion in June.

Meanwhile, imports rose 27 percent year-on-year in July to $16.06 billion, the BPS reported, slightly slower than a 28 percent annual increase in June. That left Indonesia with a $1.37 billion  trade surplus in July. Strong export performance and a pick up in investment helped Indonesia’s economy grew at a 6.5 percent rate in the second quarter from the same period a year before.