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Late Surge Lifts Indonesia's 2009 GDP Past Forecasts
Ardian Wibisono & Muhamad Al Azhari | February 10, 2010

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Indonesia posted full-year economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2009, slightly higher than the government’s forecast, thanks to better-than-expected exports and resilient consumer spending, the Central Statistics Agency said on Wednesday.

The news was welcomed by Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati and Hatta Rajasa, the coordinating minister for the economy.

“For sure, the 4.5 percent growth is higher than what the government had been projecting at 4.3 percent. This shows that growth in the fourth quarter was remarkably strong,” Sri Mulyani said.

Indonesia posted year-on-year growth of 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter, according to the statistics agency, also known as the BPS. That was stronger than the 4.4 percent average prediction from a survey of economists by the Jakarta Globe.

Fourth-quarter GDP growth was the highest since the third quarter of 2008, when the economy expanded by 6.25 percent, according to revised data from the BPS.

“This will be our basis for reviewing the supporting factors that helped our economy,” Sri Mulyani said.

Hatta said the government would look to further stimulate investment, address bottle-neck problems, and stoke the economy with infrastructure projects.

Indonesia coped better than neighboring economies during the global slowdown because it relies less on exports and consumer spending was boosted by the elections and the governmen t’s fiscal stimulus package, said Slamet Sutomo, deputy to the head of the BPS.

“Indonesia is not like Singapore. Their economy is 100 percent reliant on exports, so when the global crisis occurred, Singapore immediately collapsed,” Slamet said.

Gundy Cahyadi, an economist from IDEAGlobal in Singapore, said: “Data came in strong, which is positive for sentiment on the economy, but the modest reaction in the market seems to indicate that the market is still very much focused on external rather than domestic forces.”

In 2009, Indonesia’s non-oil-and-gas exports totaled $97.5 billion, a 9.7 percent decline from 2008. The figure was still better than most forecasts. Early in the year, it was widely predicted exports would plunge 10 percent to 15 percent as a result of the global downturn. In 2008, exports grew 9.53 percent from a year earlier.

Household consumption grew 4.9 percent in 2009 from a year ago, slowing slightly from the 5.34 percent pace in 2008. Consumption accounted for 58.6 percent of the country’s gross domestic product in 2009, compared with 60.6 percent in 2008. Exports accounted for 24.1 percent of GDP, down from 29.8 percent in 2008. Investment made up 31.1 percent, up from 27.7 percent, and the contribution from state spending increased to 9.6 percent from 8.4 percent in 2008.




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