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Moody’s, Economists Warn of Risk in Faster Inflation in Indonesia
Aloysius Unditu & Muhammad Al Azhari | February 09, 2012

Bank Indonesia took its key policy rate to the lowest level since 2005 on Thursday, as the central bank is more concerned about economic growth than the pace of inflation. (Antara Photo/Rosa Panggabean) Bank Indonesia took its key policy rate to the lowest level since 2005 on Thursday, as the central bank is more concerned about economic growth than the pace of inflation. (Antara Photo/Rosa Panggabean)
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While the central bank, Bank Indonesia, unexpectedly loosened its monetary policy on Thursday, rating agencies and economists warned of potential risks from a possible acceleration in inflation later this year.

Christian de Guzman, a sovereign risk analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, and several local economists, including Anton Gunawan from Bank Danamon and Bank Central Asia’s David Sumual, said the risk of inflation would loom in the next few months.

“Inflation is trending down despite robust growth in Indonesia,’’ de Guzman said in Jakarta, where Moody’s was holding a meeting with Indonesian economists and policy makers at the Grand Hyatt Hotel.

Bank Indonesia unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to 5.75 percent, a record low, on Thursday as it sought to take advantage of slowing inflation to spur growth in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

“There is a risk that inflation expectations are unanchored,” de Guzman said. “It would seem odd that they would be accommodating growth when domestic demand is so robust.”

Indonesia’s economy expanded 6.5 percent last year with domestic private consumption driving growth. Private consumption accounted for 56 percent of economic activity.

Inflation slowed for a fifth straight month in January to 3.65 percent. Still, Bank Indonesia maintained its inflation target at between 3.5 percent and 5.5 percent this year and next year.

“Bank Indonesia may still be tilted toward growth at least until the end of the first quarter this year,” said Sumual, from BCA.

Sumual, who correctly predicted the 25 basis point cut in the benchmark rate, said inflation should pick up in April, when the government is likely to raise electricity rates and the end of the rice harvest should usher in higher food prices.

Anton, the Bank Danamon economist, said Bank Indonesia’s lower borrowing cost should push lending rates at commercial banks down.

“We expect to see the declining trend in the market interest rate to continue further after the lowering of the BI rate,’’ he said in a report sent to the Jakarta Globe on Thursday.

Prakriti Sofat, an economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore, said that the risk of accelerating inflation may loom in the coming months should food prices increase.

“We believe the latest interest rate cut will increase market concerns about the inflation trajectory and potentially weigh on the rupiah,’’ Prakriti said in a note sent to clients, including those in Jakarta.

“If inflation accelerates quickly, the risk is that the level of concern about the appropriateness of monetary policy will likely rise, potentially weighing on Indonesian assets,” she said.

The Asian Development Bank said earlier this week that Indonesia and other Southeast Asian nations should prepare for a possible increase in food prices, which might stoke inflation.

Indonesia is among the biggest exporters of palm oil, but it imports sugar, wheat and rice.

The unexpected rate cut pushed the rupiah and bonds higher on Thursday.