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National Production of Gold, Copper Projected to Plunge in Next Two Years
Reva Sasistiya | January 06, 2010

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Production of three key minerals will plunge in 2011 as technical problems and other delays take their toll, officials at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said on Wednesday.

Copper output is forecast to tumble by 36.67 percent from this year’s target of 1.01 million tons. Gold output is expected to fall by 21.4 percent from 11,998 kilograms, and silver production is expected to shrink by 5.8 percent from 261,897 kilograms.

Diamond production has essentially been halted.

Bambang Setiawan, the ministry’s director general of coal, minerals and geothermal energy, said national output would be badly hurt by declining production at PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara’s mature Batu Hijau mine in West Nusa Tenggara.

The local subsidiary of US giant Newmont Mining, NNT has projected that its output of copper, gold and silver will plunge over the next three years because of the long delay in obtaining land-use approval for its new Elang project.

NNT applied for a forest land-use permit for new projects in West Nusa Tenggara in 2005, but approval was not received until May 2009.

The company’s gold production is expected to plunge by 66.3 percent from 777,104 ounces this year to 261,922 ounces in 2011, and to 80,482 ounces in 2012.

Its copper output is projected to tumble 54 percent to 265.1 million pounds in 2011, from 572.8 million pounds this year. A further drop to 196.6 million pounds is expected in 2012.

The picture for silver is not much brighter, with 2011 output tipped to nosedive 64 percent to 947,272 ounces from 2,619,420 ounces this year. It may drop further to 479,088 ounces in 2012.

Bambang Gatot Ariyono, director of coal and mineral production at the Energy Ministry, said technical issues, including maintenance, would contribute to the shrinking output.

Indonesia will not produce any diamonds this year as the major diamond company, PT Galuh Cempaka, jointly owned by London-based Gem Diamonds and state-owned PT Aneka Tambang, has halted operations due to the slump in diamond prices and environmental issues, Bambang Gatot added.

Despite the ministry’s gloomy forecast, the Indonesian Mining Association sees a better outlook for next year. Priyo Pribadi Soemarno, executive director of IMA, said he is confident that other companies will step in to fill the void created by Newmont’s production slump because demand for minerals is growing.

“As long as demand is good, major companies such as Freeport [McMoRan] may boost their production and it will make the total national output steady,” he said.

However, he added that the industry needed more government support.

The government is hoping that investment in the mining sector will increase by 23 percent next year from this year’s target of $2.5 billion.




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