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No Cause For Concern
Jakarta Globe, Bloomberg | July 21, 2009

Forensic investigators searching for clues at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel on Monday. (Photo: Jurnasyanto Sukarno, JG) Forensic investigators searching for clues at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel on Monday. (Photo: Jurnasyanto Sukarno, JG)
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The bomb blasts at the Ritz-Carlton and JW Marriott hotels in Jakarta on Friday may weigh on the stock market and rupiah for the next few days, but the negative effects should be short-lived, market analysts said on Monday.

“The markets are becoming increasingly immune to such events. Moreover, this type of terrorism is a global, not Indonesia-specific, problem,” said Tamara Mast Henderson, an analyst at ANZ global markets.

Citigroup economist Johanna Chua said the reaction was less extreme than after the first Bali bombings in 2002 or the Marriott bombing in 2003 because Indonesia had not had a major terrorist attack for some time.

“Even then, the rupiah recouped its losses in little over a month following the first Bali attacks, and within a couple of days after the first Marriott bombing,” Chua said.

The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) posted a moderate loss of 0.55 percent on Friday. While the rupiah sagged on news of the bombings, it quickly regained its footing. It fell to as low as 10,223 against the US dollar before recovering to the 10,175 level by 5 p.m., according to Bloomberg.

Chia Woon Khien, a Singapore-based interest-rate strategist at the Royal Bank of Scotland Group, told Bloomberg that he still sees the rupiah gaining ground in the second half of this year.

“We have a call for 9,800 to 9,900 by year-end, which is about the consensus. It will still mean substantial gains from here,” he said. “The biggest risk is more external than domestic. If the world is in a W-shaped double-dip [recession ] , then the dollar may stage another rally and all gains would be lost if you were short dollars against anything else.”

On Indonesian bonds, he said: “Appetite for Indonesian bonds is strong as it is the highest-yielding market within the region. The 10-year is yielding around 10.5 percent to 11 percent.

“Compare that to countries like the Philippines, which is rated on a par with Indonesia and yielding around 6 percent to 7 percent. Also, Indonesia may even get upgraded.

“The difference between Indonesian and Philippine yields is due to inflation, but I don’t think the inflation problem in Indonesia is any greater than anywhere else.

Nizam Idris, a currency strategist at UBS in Singapore, said: “Security is a major game changer for foreign investors. The question is if this will be repeated in the near term. If we get another round of breaches of security that would change this perception of Indonesia’s improving security position.”

Over the next six months, the rupiah may trade between 10,000 and 10,500 against the dollar, Nizam said.

“With the security uncertainty it may go to the weaker side of that range.”




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