The year of dynamic equilibrium

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The year of dynamic equilibrium
Jamil Maidan Flores | January 03, 2012

At about this time last year, I made a fearless forecast: that in Indonesian diplomacy, the year of the golden rabbit 2011 would live up to its reputation for fecundity, friendship, good communication and the accomplishment of many things that make your home secure.

Looking back, I feel that my forecast has been vindicated by events. For Indonesian diplomacy, the year 2011 was one of successful negotiations and various achievements that made the Asia-Pacific region a more peaceful abode for humankind.

Not that I was right in every detail — I was not. For instance, I predicted that there would be no breakthrough for democracy in Myanmar. I happily eat my words on that. But that is getting ahead of the story.

Three priorities

The year of the golden rabbit began with Indonesia assuming the chair of ASEAN, thanks to a swap with Brunei of their respective turns at the rotating chairmanship of the regional organization. Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa set the tone for that chairmanship at a retreat of ASEAN foreign ministers in Lombok by laying down three priorities:

First, to ensure that significant progress would be made during the year toward the attainment of the ASEAN Community. This was only natural, since the target year, 2015, is just around the corner.

Second, to ensure that the regional architecture and the regional environment remain conducive to development. This is where the notion of “dynamic equilibrium” comes in. Orchestrated by ASEAN, the powers of the Asia-Pacific region, including China and the United States, would have to behave less as rivals and more as partners in a win-win arrangement.

Third, to start deliberations on a post-2015 vision of an ASEAN Community in a global community of nations. This would be the third step on the stairway of Indonesia’s intellectual leadership of ASEAN.

At the first ASEAN Summit in Bali in 1976, ASEAN made its first consolidation and expanded its cooperation, making it necessary for the ASEAN Secretariat to come into existence. Call that Bali Concord I.

Then at the ASEAN Summit in Bali in 2003, ASEAN decided to become a community resting on the mutually supportive pillars of politico-security cooperation, economic cooperation and socio-cultural cooperation. When achieved, the community would represent the fullest possible integration of ASEAN. Call that Bali Concord II.

What next? Beyond the region is an international community bedeviled by many systemic problems — climate change, terrorism, the threat of a double-dip depression, etc. ASEAN with its demonstrated resilience in the face of global crises and its achievements in the cause of peace is therefore called upon to contribute to the solution of these problems.

Of course, individual ASEAN countries are already contributing to the solution of global problems. But if ASEAN contributed as a team, synergy would be created and the impact could be tremendous.

During the year, ASEAN members would start thinking and discussing ways to create that synergy at the global level. Call that Bali Concord III.

Mission accomplished

All these three priorities were achieved — but by no means easily. Especially in the case of the first: making progress towards the attainment of an ASEAN Community.

Indonesia had barely warmed its seat, when the first challenge to its effective chairmanship came about in the form of an artillery duel between two ASEAN members, Thailand and Cambodia, over a border dispute involving the Hindu temple Preah Vihar.

If a full-scale war had broken out between the two neighbors, they and all the other members could kiss goodbye to their dreams of achieving an ASEAN Community. Not only that: they might as well forget about serving as the main pillar of an Asia-Pacific regional architecture in a glorious state of “dynamic equilibrium.” And forget about solving global problems.

Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa rushed first to Cambodia and then to Thailand to help the two find common ground. Fortunately both countries weren’t all-out for blood: they agreed to a cease-fire. Then he flew to New York where, on behalf of Indonesia as ASEAN chair, he addressed the UN Security Council on the Preah Vihar crisis.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon immediately threw his support behind Indonesia’s mediation efforts, including its proposal to create an Indonesian Observer Team and deploy it within the disputed border area to help ensure that the cease-fire held.

At this juncture, Cambodia brought the dispute before the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for “clarification.” To prevent further hostilities while it considered the case, the Court ordered the two countries to withdraw soldiers from the disputed border area — in effect creating a temporary demilitarized zone — and to allow in the projected Indonesian Observer Team.

The order was handed down just as Indonesia was presiding over the annual ASEAN Ministerial Meeting (AMM) in July, an unexpected gift from the court, after the UN Security Council gave the same recognition to Indonesia’s mediation efforts as early as February.
Since then, with a new government elected in Thailand, relations between the two countries have greatly improved and ASEAN has proven that it can manage its own politico-security problems.

Another triumph of the Indonesian chairmanship during that July ministerial meeting was the conclusion of an ASEAN-China agreement on the Guidelines to the Declaration of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. This breakthrough came after nine years of fruitless negotiations and months of assertive behavior by the Chinese navy in the South China Sea.

Today ASEAN and China are negotiating a legally binding Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which could ensure against armed conflict breaking out while the parties sorted out their sovereignty and territorial disputes in the area.

The Koreas talk

A third breakthrough during that ministerial meeting was the dialogue between the two Koreas, particularly the “informal informal” meeting between their respective heads of delegations — after many months of not communicating with each other, in the wake of North Korea’s deadly hostile actions against the South. Again, ASEAN proved that it could provide a venue for initiatives that give peace a chance in the Asia-Pacific region.

Efforts to achieve those breakthroughs were greatly helped by progress made when President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono presided over the 18th ASEAN Summit in Jakarta in early May.

But by then, ASEAN had a headache from the depths: Myanmar had proposed to switch turns with Laos in order to serve as ASEAN chair for 2014. Most ASEAN governments viewed this proposal favorably because the previous year the generals released democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from detention and the country held its first national elections in 20 years — even if they were denounced as rigged by almost all international observers.

And again Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa had to walk a perilous tightrope. In 2005, Myanmar, under pressure from the other members, skipped its turn at the ASEAN chairmanship, admitting that it was not ready. But now, after carrying out a few reform measures, it firmly asserted that it was ready to serve as chair.

Denying Myanmar’s bid would have divided ASEAN but acceding to it would risk dialogue partners, notably those from the West, snubbing ASEAN meetings. Either way would be a catastrophe for ASEAN.

After a long delay, the foreign minister finally visited Myanmar in late October. That was when Myanmar’s government was surprising the world by releasing hundreds of detainees, many of them prisoners of conscience. Moreover, it put an end to censorship and allowed full freedom of the press. And deferring to public opinion, it halted construction of a dam that Myanmar civil society had opposed because it would wreak environmental disaster on the country.

During his visit, the Indonesian foreign minister won the assurance of high government officials, including the prime minister, that democratic reform in Myanmar was “irreversible.” He also had what was described as a very positive dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

When the 19th ASEAN and Related Summits were being held in Bali, Myanmar’s Suu Kyi announced that her party had decided to join the ongoing political process and contest the forthcoming by-elections. She herself would run for a seat in parliament, quashing doubts that reform in Myanmar was for real.

Pariah no more

Just before he attended the East Asia Summit in Bali, US President Barack Obama responded to Suu Kyi’s decision by announcing that he was sending State Secretary Hillary Clinton to Myanmar. President Yudhoyono then happily announced ASEAN’s decision that Myanmar would serve as chair in 2014.

Myanmar’s breakout from isolation made the East Asia Summit, with the US and Russia participating for the first time, even more successful. It had an enormous and positive impact on the region’s dynamic equilibrium as it changed Myanmar’s engagement with China into a more constructive one, and re-established its engagement with the rest of the world.

At the same time, ASEAN closed in on another milestone: after ten years of negotiations, it finally reached agreement with the five major nuclear powers — China, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States — on the protocol of the Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons-free Zone (SEANWFZ). Their actual accession is now only a matter of time.

These are some of the highlights of a fecund year for Indonesian diplomacy. Other important achievements include Indonesia’s high-profile espousal of Palestine’s bid for membership in the United Nations during the UN General Assembly debate in September, and the Fourth Bali Democracy Forum in December.

What made that fourth forum particularly special was the exceedingly animated exchange of views among the participants on the topic of democratic participation, which was undoubtedly inspired by the ongoing ferment for democracy in the Middle East, the Arab Spring.

Double breakthrough

Finally, for Indonesian diplomacy, the fecund year of the golden rabbit ended not with a bang but with a tribute to silence — the silence of nuclear devices not exploding. In early December Indonesia completed its ratification process of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa described it as “a strong declaration of commitment to a world without nuclear weapons.” Coupled with the recent successful conclusion of negotiations between ASEAN and Nuclear Weapon States, it was also “a double breakthrough for Indonesia and ASEAN.” US President Obama hailed it as a strong example of Indonesian leadership.

That’s the kind of leadership that ASEAN and Indonesia must keep on exercising to ensure that “dynamic equilibrium” continues to flourish in the Asia-Pacific.

What next? As the rabbit scurries away the year of the dragon thunders in; hopefully a benign dragon, one that stands for strength and good luck. And soft power.

The dragon is also supposed to have control over rainfall, hurricane and floods. That’s good news to the flood-stricken people of Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, the Philippines and the neighborhood where I live in Kemang, South Jakarta