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To bomb or not to bomb? That is the question. Whether ’tis wiser for America to suffer the bluster of a nuclear-armed Iran or to take up arms in the Persian Gulf and by doing so, end the standoff. That, with apologies to the bard, is the dilemma of the United States and its allies in r elation to Iran and its controversial nuclear program.

A nuclear-armed Iran is anathema to the United States, Israel and their Western allies. If Iran is not deterred by sanctions from pursuing its nuclear program, there may be no alternative but military action. But to cripple that program with a military attack could incur immense economic and political costs that they are not willing to bear — unless Iran’s behavior forces their hand.

Thus, for the second time in about three months, sabers are rattling in the Persian Gulf. But it’s a lot more serious this time.

Last November, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu campaigned openly for cabinet support for a surgical strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. The Iranian defense minister, Gen. Ahmad Vahidi, responded by threatening Israel with a rain of 150,000 missiles.

Iwan Wiranataatmadja, the former Indonesian ambassador to Iran, and Asean colleagues laughed off the exchange as a war of words, full of sound and fury but little more. When the situation is serious, he said, there are signs. For instance, Iran usually goes into a military exercise to show off its naval might and firepower. No such martial workout was held at that time.

But recently Iran carried out a 10-day military drill that climaxed just early in the new year. And soon after that, it announced that it would hold another naval maneuver in February. When I saw Ambassador Iwan a few days ago, he was not laughing about the Gulf situation.

Another wave of foreboding is the information leaked about the deployment of thousands of American troops in Israel. Apparently they are there to help Israel set up an umbrella that would be impregnable against a rain of 150,000 missiles.

Worse for Iran, the principal adversary this time is not Israel but the United States. Reacting to a report of the International Atomic Energy Agency that convinced the West that Iran was pursuing a nuclear weapons program, President Barack Obama’s administration scaled up already hefty sanctions against the country. On top of that, the US Congress passed legislation targeting Iran’s central bank and oil industry. If Obama signs that bill into law, it could lead to war and he does not want another war during an election year. But if he vetoes it, his Republican opponents would call him a sissy who had no business residing in the White House.

Meanwhile, the European Union added another turn of the screw by imposing its own fresh sanctions. Japan followed suit. South Korea has made it known that it intends to join the squeeze.

That’s when Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s not just another waterway. It’s the most important strait in the world. Some 35 percent of global seaborne oil exports pass through that sea lane. Close it and the global economy becomes a hospital case.

Can Iran do it? Like drinking a glass of water, says its naval commander, Habibollah Sayyari. If that happened, says Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, America would have to reopen it. That means minesweepers, battleships, aircraft carriers and everything the US Navy can throw at the Iranians, including the kitchen sink.

UK Prime Minister David Cameron says if that happened, the whole world would come together to make sure the Strait stayed open. He also talks of an embargo on Iranian oil.

One of the few remaining cooler heads in the international community is Indonesia. It has appealed for calm and restraint on the part of all concerned.

Meanwhile, pundits are constructing all sorts of grim scenarios. Most predict that if Iran closes the Strait, its navy will get acquainted with the bottom of the ocean, but that the US will also suffer heavy losses in the ensuing asymmetrical warfare. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards can launch kamikaze attacks with their speedboats. Some cite the ghastly possibility of Israel firing its nukes, while Russia and China join the radioactive fray on the side of Iran.

Still I do not worry. Not until Indonesian ambassadors in the Middle East start making frantic calls to the Foreign Ministry to quickly send in planes to bring home the migrant workers. In that event, World War III may have begun.

 

Jamil Maidan Flores is a poet, fiction writer, playwright and essayist who has worked as a speechwriter for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since 1992.