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I’m in Manila slogging my way through the slums of Tondo, one of the poorest areas in the vast capital of the Philippines. Tondo’s Moriones Street is near “Smokey Mountain,” the infamous dump that has drawn Western news crews like moths to a flame.

Benigno Aquino III, the Liberal Party’s presidential candidate, is about to launch his Manila campaign in Tondo. There is a small stage in the middle of the road and a single set of lights along with a generator. Having followed President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s lavishly equipped campaign last year, I’m a little surprised at the modest scale of the preparations in Tondo.

Meanwhile, stall owners have been arriving to take advantage of the anticipated crowd. They’re selling fried food, noodles and iced drinks. On one side, there is a tent set up serving free food. There’s an opportunistic huddle of people watching the preparations intently. The prospect of getting free food is clearly very important.

While waiting for the proceedings to begin, I slip into the local church, Santo Nino. There is a service in progress. At the far end of the nave, I can see the priest in his flowing robe. His sermon switches between Tagalog and English. The building is surprisingly large and the walls are made of marble. The nave is well over 30 meters high, soaring above the congregation.

There is a strange magnificence about the structure, something wholly unexpected in such a poor and rough district. Most of the stalls are full and there are a lot of young people. A group of teenage boys is joking around in front of me. In fact, I can’t help but notice how many children — shoeless street urchins — I see everywhere. Having crisscrossed Indonesia last year for the elections, I make a mental note of the marked difference between the two countries. There are way more children in the Philippines.

I’m in Manila to see how Noynoy, as Aquino is known, will be received on the ground. The middle class is sold on his steadfastness. Like his mother, the late President Corazon Aquino, he has a reputation for honesty and integrity, values that resonate in the subdivisions of Makati and Quezon City. The phrase “I will not steal” has been repeated to me time and again.

But will his late mother’s magic — her mantle — extend into the ranks of the masa? Campaigning in Tondo is almost a badge of honor. Manny Villar, a supremely well-funded property developer and a presidential candidate who is in second place behind Aquino in the polls, has already been to Tondo, where the issues are less abstract and more concrete. Where will the jobs come from? What about rice and sugar prices?

Aquino and Villar stand out among a crowded field of presidential candidates — 10 in total. Former President Joseph Estrada is running, but his heavily Botoxed face and slurred language have turned him into a figure of ridicule. The incumbent, President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, and her party, Lakas, have also fielded a candidate: Gilbert Teodoro. He is a bright, Harvard-trained professional. However, his appealing personality is insufficient to counter Arroyo’s endorsement. She has become the kiss of death in electoral terms.

Still, Aquino is starting to lose momentum, and the ramshackle organization in Tondo — overlong speeches and a lack of discipline — only serves to reinforce a sense of incipient chaos.

Meanwhile, Villar has redoubled his focus. His broad face, grinning and confident, pops up everywhere. He’s been planning his assault on Malacanang for well over three years. He is a man with a humble background and a checkered personal history. His business dealings have been mired in controversy and the middle class is extremely wary of him, even though he’s been adept at presenting the more palatable aspects of his history. His mother, for example, is reported to have run a sari-sari store — not unlike a warung — according to the carefully contrived media blitz. Aquino, by way of comparison, is eminently forgettable. Slight and balding, he tends to slip into the background. His lack of charisma is worrying.

The presidential polls are slated for early May. While Aquino remains a sentimental favorite, his underwhelming personality and a lack of authority vis-a-vis his own party colleagues look set to torpedo his chances. Meanwhile, Villar, with a rock-solid team, continues to narrow the gap between them.

Aquino has just under three months to assert himself and prove his credentials. Time is running out.



Karim Raslan is a columnist who divides his time between Malaysia and Indonesia.