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All politics — in Indonesia or elsewhere — is local. So while the national media circus has been obsessing about the upcoming cabinet reshuffle, slated to occur by Oct. 20, two local elections — one in Java and the other in Sumatra — may be a better gauge of current public sentiment, as well as show the difficulty of identifying nationwide trends.

The first is Yogyakarta, Java’s cultural hub. The local mayoral contest comes after the city has been run, and run pretty effectively, for 10 years by Herry Zudianto, a shrewd local businessman with the National Mandate Party (PAN).

Recognizing the opportunity, another PAN member, Hanafi Rais, the son of party founder Amien Rais, was readied to replace the wiry Pak Herry. From the outset, it looked like a political slam dunk, as the son of the great national leader (and a local Yogya man) stepped forward to claim the city.

However, reality intervened and after what was considered by many to be a lavishly funded campaign, Hanafi was duly defeated. And the victor? None other than Pak Herry’s former deputy, Haryadi Suyuti, from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), by a 6.4 percent margin. With a Golkar Party running mate and Sultan Hamengkubuwono’s support, Haryadi was able to rebuff the ambitious political scion.

In the resource-rich province of South Sumatra, another political scion came crashing down, as Golkar’s Dodi Reza Alex (the son of local Governor Alex Noerdin) lost by a similar margin to Pahri Azhari in Musi Banyuasin district.

These two elections are remarkable on several counts.

First, the results would seem to suggest that Indonesia’s political dynasties are in decline. Of course, developments in Banten, with the late Haji Chasan’s ambitious clan now led by his daughter, Governor Ratu Atut, would seem to disprove that argument.

Still, both Hanafi and Dodi — sons of prominent politicians — lost despite their enormous advantage in money, power and connections. Do familial ties no longer hold the sway they once did in Indonesian politics?

That may be the case. For one thing, the younger men’s campaigns were always going to be tough. Their adversaries were hardened and experienced local players. Indeed, eventual winners Haryadi and Pahri were well-regarded incumbents, and both men had extensive bureaucratic or private sector experience before entering politics.

This imbued them with professionalism and a technocratic veneer, especially when faced with their neophyte challengers. Indeed, the trend across the republic has been for incumbents to come out tops in local elections: If anything, Indonesians seem to prefer experience to a family name.

Still, the narrowness of the incumbents’ victories means they will need to keep working hard. What’s most telling, however, is the fact that both Hanafi and Dodi chose to try for local, rather than national, office.

Both men had other options. Hanafi’s father is a giant of the House of Representatives (DPR), while Dodi was elected to the DPR with one of the largest majorities back in 2009. Their decision reinforces the allure of authority wielded by the district heads and mayors as well as the general nationwide disenchantment with the DPR.

Could this mean that power is indeed shifting from Jakarta to the provinces?

Decentralization means that Indonesians care more about who their mayors, district heads or governors are than they do about the occupants of the Presidential Palace or the House of Representatives. Politicians seeking to carve out a reputation are now more likely to do so in the provinces.

Hanafi’s and Dodi’s defeats say as much about voters rejecting their vision (or lack thereof) for their areas as they say about dynastic or factional maneuvering.

Could these polls herald a new sophistication among the electorate — one that prioritizes local issues over national ones?

This calls into question the relevance of Indonesian national politics: the DPR with its endless bickering, the lackluster cabinet and the presidency itself. The infighting, corruption and ineptitude endemic in all three institutions stands in poor contrast to the dynamism and can-do spirit of many of Indonesia’s local leaders.

All these beg more disturbing questions: Does it really matter what Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono does in his cabinet reshuffle? What is the implication of Indonesia’s new localism to its polity, which has always prided itself on being a unitary state?

Karim Raslan is a writer who divides his time between Malaysia and Indonesia.