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The Thinker: Tsunami Warning
Syamsidik | February 01, 2012

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Although the Metrology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency issued a tsunami warning following the 7.1 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Aceh on Jan. 10, no siren sounded in Banda Aceh or other coastal areas.

Fortunately, no tsunami followed the quake, but the lack of sirens raises questions. In the event of a true emergency, would our early warning system work properly? If the devastating Dec. 26, 2004, tsunami failed to push Indonesian authorities to manage the risk of tsunamis, what can?

Addressing the risk posed by tsunamis is a major challenge not only for developing countries, but also advanced countries such as Japan that can deploy the latest technology for disaster management. The issue of disaster preparedness is a serious matter for countries around the Indian Ocean. Indonesia, the country most frequently impacted by tsunamis in the past century, should be sharing its experience with other at-risk countries and leading efforts to create a regional tsunami mitigation system that could effectively reduce future loss of life.

Considering that tsunamis can cause substantial damage across national boundaries, cooperation and common understanding among nations is crucial. One initiative started by at-risk countries is the Unesco-supported Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System. This group, though specifically aimed at Indian Ocean countries, also works with countries outside the region. Japan and Germany have already come up with advanced strategies to integrate science and technology for tsunami preparedness and mitigation.

The last meeting of the ICG/IOTWS, held in Jakarta in December, was revealing. Although progress has been made in these countries’ policies, community preparedness initiatives remain underdeveloped. Serious concerns were voiced for small islands located close to fault lines: the Mentawai and Banyak islands in Indonesia, the Nicobar Islands in India and the Maldives. Their residents have fewer evacuation options in the event of a tsunami.

The tsunami that struck the Mentawai Islands in October 2010 gave residents with a seven-minute window to escape. At the time, Indonesia’s tsunami early warning system could only manage to sound a warning five minutes after the earthquake. Assuming the system worked properly, the residents would have only had two minutes to run to higher ground. Fortunately, people depended on their own knowledge rather than on the warning system.

Some 20,000 people were killed in the Great East Japan Tsunami on March 11, 2011, or about one-tenth the number who died in the 2004 tsunami in Aceh. This comparatively low casualty rate is due to the fact that Japan has invested heavily in a tsunami early warning and mitigation system.

The Sunda arc is a volcanic cluster that lies beneath the Indian Ocean off the coast of Sumatra, and is one of the most consistent sources of tsunamis worldwide. Its northern edge borders Burma and it stretches to the Timor Sea. With its extensive system of fault lines, the Indo-Australian plate is considered the most dangerous tsunami source on earth.

The Boxing Day tsunami that occurred in 2004 showed how the fault line was able to overpower all coastal protection systems in countries bordering the Indian Ocean. Due to the potential calamitous effects of the Indo-Australian fault, it is urgent for countries to work together to enhance their preparedness for future tsunamis. Disasters will not wait until we are prepared.

After the Aceh tsunami in 2004, Indonesia’s efforts to enhance its tsunami early warning system were woefully inadequate. The still shell-shocked people of that province are incredibly lucky that the siren towers’ failure to sound a warning this month did not end in disaster … this time.

There is absolutely no excuse for allowing a disaster of the magnitude of 2004 to happen again. The people of Aceh, and indeed people all along the coast of this shaky archipelago, have suffered enough. No one should have to live in fear of a day when they or their loved ones could be swept away.

Our early warning system must be thoroughly overhauled. Indonesia must take the lead on this issue and make upgrading its system a priority, adding tsunami buoys, siren towers and improved IT facilities in remote areas to support the system.

Syamsidik is a research development manager at the Tsunami and Disaster Mitigation Research Center and a lecturer in the Department of Civil Engineering at Syiah Kuala University in Banda Aceh.




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