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The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that some of the country’s main rice-producing areas may be hit by an early dry season, prompting worries from farmers that their crops could be damaged and national output may fall.

Nuryadi, BMKG’s head of climate analysis, said that 19.5 percent of the country will likely face an early dry season and 30 percent of the country will face a late dry season.

The remaining 50.5 percent of the country is predicted to have a normal dry season.

For those areas hit by an early dry season, BMKG forecast that the season will begin sometime between late March and May, instead of in June as usual.

Nuryadi said farmers in key rice-producing areas, including Karawang, West Java, and southern coastal areas of West Java through Central Java, must pay attention to their farms’ water supply.

“Water supply for food crops will be really concerning,” Nuryadi told the Jakarta Globe on Monday.

Winarno Tohir, the chairman of the Indonesian Progressive Fishermen and Farmers Association (KTNA), warned that the early dry season could hit crop output if farmers do not take proper precautions.

“Based on our calculations, there will be three million hectares of both irrigated and non-irrigated paddy field suffering from early drought this year,” Winarno said on Tuesday. “If it’s true, but hopefully not, potential paddy lost from these land may reach 9 million tons.”

The KTNA prediction is based on a worst-case scenario.

The country is expected to produce 64.9 million tons of unprocessed paddy this year, an increase of 0.88 percent over last year.

Winarno stressed that the potential damage could be reduced with preparations such as using water pumps to supply water to the rice fields and by using high-quality seeds, which are resistant to drought.

Endang Titi Purwani, head of mitigation of climate impact at the Agriculture Ministry, said the government would provide water pumps to the areas hit by the early dry season. “We will also provide high-quality seeds for free, so farmers may keep planting paddy,” she said.

However, she called on farmers not to plant rice if their areas are expected to experience an early dry season.

“For areas which will enter the dry season during late March to April, we suggest that the farmers not plant paddy and switch to second crops such as corn and soybean,” Endang said.

Indonesia has about 12.4 million hectares of harvested areas of paddy field. BMKG predicted that 1.9 million hectares of paddy fields will be affected if the dry season comes early in May.

BMKG said some of the areas that are forecast to have a late dry season will experience unusually heavy rain. That could delay the sugar milling season by three weeks until late May.

The vast majority of the country’s sugar mills are located in East Java.