Election Pollsters Red-Faced After Admitting to ‘Some’ Skewed Surveys
Camelia Pasandaran | June 10, 2009
Officials count votes at a polling booth during April's legislative elections. Three leading survey groups acknowledged that the results of some of their surveys had been skewed by inaccurate sampling on Tuesday. (Photo: Jurnasyanto Sukarno, JG) Related articles
Democrats Reject Calls to Scrap New Voting System 11:53am Dec 19, 2011
Indonesian Politicians Bash Proposed Survey Law 11:03am Nov 7, 2011
KPU Wants to Get Better Grip on Indonesian Polling Agencies 2:40pm Nov 5, 2011
Ireland Picks New President From Diverse, Crowded Field 11:29pm Oct 27, 2011
Tunisia Holds First Arab Spring Elections 9:21am Oct 23, 2011
Post a comment
Please login to post comment
Comments
Be the first to write your opinion!
A tetchy rivalry between election pollsters turned to embarrassment on Tuesday as three leading groups acknowledged that some of their surveys had been skewed by inaccurate sampling.
The admission by representatives of the Information Research Council (LRI), Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and Institute of Economic and Social Studies and Development (LP3ES) in a panel discussion prompted calls for more scrutiny of polling groups.
The often rancorous discussion was held in response to recent revelations that one survey group was linked to Vice President Jusuf Kalla’s campaign, while another was hired to do a poll for the campaign of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
“As we admitted during the survey release, our sample validation is a bit problematic,” said Johan Silalahi, the director of LRI and a political consultant to Kalla’s campaign. He acknowledged his group’s sampling didn’t match the demographic data of the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) on voter education levels or rural versus urban composition.
LRI last week surveyed 2,096 people in 33 provinces, concluding that Yudhoyono’s lead was not as large as believed at only 33 percent. Vice President Jusuf Kalla had 29 percent and Megawati Sukarnoputri 20 percent.
LRI’s results differed dramatically to surveys conducted by the two other pollsters.
On Monday, LP3ES released a poll done by phone showing Yudhoyono at 54.9 percent, Megawati 9.7 percent and Kalla 6.8 percent. But Fajar Nursahid, LP3E’s research director, admitted the survey didn’t reflect the nation. “We did the survey only in 15 big cities,” he said. “The results for sure cannot be claimed as nationwide opinions about the candidates.
LSI, the country’s most prominent pollster, conducted a poll in late May showing Yudhoyono enjoying a huge lead with 71 percent support. Megawati had 16.4 percent and Jusuf Kalla 6 percent.
But LSI admitted last week it was paid around Rp 500 million ($50,000) to do the poll by Fox Indonesia, a consulting firm working for Yudhoyono’s campaign.
LSI’s critics point out that its final survey ahead of the April 9 legislative elections predicted that Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party would win with 26 percent of the vote. They won 20.8 percent, outside the survey’s margin of error. “Surveys can be wrong,” said LSI research director Dodi Ambardi.
- ‘The Phantom of the Opera’ Unveils Itself to Jakarta Audience
- Malaysian Girl Speaks Indonesian After Freak Accident: Report
- Indonesians Buying Up Most Expensive Homes in Singapore
- Funeral on Friday for Student Killed in Rafting Accident
- Adek Berry: The Lady Behind the Camera
- Indonesian Police Arrest Czech Tourist in Papua
- 7 Motorcycle Girls Arrested for Beating Up Their Own on Bali
- The Thinker: Let's Talk About Sex
- Indonesian Operators Ban Access to LGBT Advocacy Web Site
- Final Farewell to Singapore's Dr. Toh Chin Chye
-
4:35am | The Thinker: Let's Talk About ...
agentmacgyver, would you agree that common sense is not listed in the vocabulary... Why do girls and boys marry at an alarming young age bec -
2:03am | Axis of Hostility: Iran, Israe...
An Iran with nuclear powers could well be the beginning of the end of the world. alwa at 4:02 doesn't seem to realize that Iran is -
1:51am | Is Atheism Illegal in Indonesi...
It's amazing that the state puts itself above the Gods, and decides what six religions people are allowed to believe in in Indonesia. -
11:27pm | Indonesians Buying Up Most Exp...
@agentmacgyver, so it is not true you think ? perhaps I should rephrase it this way, 30% corrupt Indonesians (.. and 60% corrupt Indonesians who al -
11:08pm | Rehab, Not Jail for Lion Air P...
Hi Weegie Im a 59 year old who has been a regular vistor to Indonesia for 35 years I think that the crime and corruption is much greater per capita -
10:42pm | 12 Detainees Pull Off Brazen J...
Jailbreak happens all over the World Governments should give education and hope to the poor or else the Higly organised Mega Rich Crime will destro -
10:15pm | Notorious Gang Boss Could Be B...
Every Big city in the World has a huge crime problem So Jakarta no different. Honesty is the best policy. My father said to me when I was a young ... -
10:07pm | Israel’s Stance on Iran Could ...
Strike is a made up war from the free mason and illuminati, they need to justify a war to reduce the worlds population by 90%. A nwo will be create
