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A report published by an Australian university this month warns that a repeat of the alleged massacre in East Timor is likely to occur in Papua.

The report, prepared by the University of Sydney’s Center for Peace and Conflict Studies, found that the majority of Papuans believe that the special autonomy granted to the province had failed to bring prosperity and had opened the door to corruption.

Special autonomy status was granted by the central government in 2001 and was meant to suppress calls for independence after the fall of former President Suharto in 1998.

The autonomy offered a degree of economic independence by promising that a large portion of the royalties received from the logging and mining industries in the province were channeled back to residents.

“Money supposed to be allocated to health and education expenditure was swallowed up in public servants’ wages, in buildings and even in funding local military operations. Health and education services declined in many areas,” the report said.

“Special autonomy led to a fall in people’s living standards. [It] also failed to empower the Papuans politically.”

Jim Elmslie and Camellia Webb Gannon, the authors of the report, urged a peaceful dialog between Jakarta and the Papuan people, after the Papuan Assembly (MRP) and leading intellectuals called for a referendum of independence on June 18.

A massive rally took place in Jayapura, the province capital, a day later. At least 10,000 people were estimated to have participated in the march, in which they symbolically gave back special autonomy status to the central government.

The academics warn that unless the Papuans’ concerns are addressed soon, violence was the likely outcome.

“The real danger in Papua is that all of the events discussed in this report will lead to even larger-scale demonstrations that run the risk of increasingly violent military responses,” the report said.

Elmslie and Gannon predicted that a repeat of the alleged 1991 massacre in Santa Cruz, East Timor, would likely occur. Thousands of Timorese were said to be killed by the Indonesian military after peacefully calling for an independence referendum during the regime of President Suharto.

In March, a similar report from the International Crisis Group said the failure of special autonomy had spurred armed insurgencies from separatist movements.

However, Elmslie and Gannon said the ICG had failed to distinguish between those participating in peaceful rallies with those involved in armed conflicts. Their report said that the ICG findings could pave the way to further violence in the province.