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Bogor. As rain continues to fall across Bogor and the upstream area of the Ciliwung River, water at the Katulampa Dam reached dangerous levels on Sunday, spelling disaster for Jakarta if it continued to rise.

Hendri Antoro, head of the data and information bureau of the Bogor Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG), warned that Greater Jakarta was moving into high-intensity rainy season.

He said the peak of the rainy season, initially forecast for mid-January to mid-February, had been delayed and was estimated to end sometime in early March.

“The rain in the Greater Jakarta area has begun to rise to 42 millimeters and even up to 50 millimeters. This is before entering the peak of the rainy season,” Hendri said.

He attributed the increased rains to the rising temperature of the surface of the Java Sea, a phenomenon he said was expected to continue until early March

In Bogor and its surrounding areas, the extreme weather has already seen above-average wind speed, high levels of rain and also lightning, said Djabariah, a forecaster at the Bogor BMKG office.

Bogor has experienced rains for the past week. Strong winds also damaged houses in three villages in the Cibinong subdistrict of Bogor on Saturday, displacing 52 families.

Heavy rains also caused the banks of the Cijeruk River in Bogor to burst, inundating 57 houses with up to 50 centimeters of water, said Yous Sudrajat, who heads the Bogor Disaster Mitigation Agency (BPBD).

At the Katulampa floodgate in Bogor, the alert status is now Level 4, up one from normal, as the water has reached dangerous levels of 70 centimeters while flowing at 62 cubic meters per second, said Andi Sudirman, the operator of the gate.

The normal level of water at the gate is below 50 centimeters, but recent rains in Bogor have raised the level by 20 centimeters.

“Our staff is on alert, monitoring the water’s height,” Andi said. He said the water could still rise to above 90 centimeters and flow at 113 cubic meters per second if the rains continued to fall in the upstream area of the Ciliwung River.

“If rains continue over the Puncak area for the next two hours, we will enter the next alert level,” Andi said, referring to the upstream areas of the river.

Officials at the Katulampa gate have said that should the water there reach between 70 and 100 centimeters, the possibility of flooding downstream along the riverbanks of the Ciliwung would rise. High alert is sounded to areas downstream if the water reaches 200 centimeters.

“If in Jakarta rains continue to fall, we will remain on alert for flooding,” Andi said.

The Katulampa Dam is the first flood-control reservoir built to contain water from upstream areas. The Depok Dam is the last stop before water enters Jakarta.

At the Depok Dam, the water was also at alert levels, rising over 180 centimeters.

Rising water in several rivers in upstream regions in Bogor early on Sunday caused flooding in several areas.

The Krukut River in South Jakarta flooded, inundating Pondok Labu.  Jatinegara and Kramat Jati in East Jakarta also saw flooding from the Ciliwung and the Kali Baru rivers.

In 2002 and 2007, Jakarta was hit by massive flooding, prompting talk of a five-year cycle of major floods.

The National Disaster Mitigation Agency said that the five-year cycle was a myth.