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Analysis

There was no doubt about it this time. Nearly seven frustrating years of near misses and false leads for Indonesia's National Police have come to a spectacular conclusion with the killing of Malaysian terrorist Noordin M Top.

Noordin’s elimination on the eve of Idul Fitri will undoubtedly bring a sense of relief, but it is also a tonic for police still smarting from their failure to nab him a month ago in a now-infamous raid in the Central Java village of Temanggung.

There will be few tears shed for Noordin’s violent death in a hail of gunfire, given that he came to Indonesia with the sole purpose of killing as many people as possible in large-scale terrorist attacks.

“There is absolutely no love lost for this clown,” said Ken Conboy, author of “The Second Front: Inside Jemaah Islamiyah, Asia’s Most Dangerous Terrorism Network.”

He called the spontaneous public elation following news of Noordin’s death a reaction to the recent Indonesia-Malaysia tensions as well.

“Here he is a Malaysian coming in and causing bloodshed. Still, it’s a great story on how he was able to play off blood relatives and evade arrest for so long.”

But celebrations among counterterrorism officials are likely to be brief. Noordin leaves behind a shadowy organization of dedicated followers as willing as he was to launch terrorist attacks across Indonesia.

“It means the leadership of the one major group dedicated to attacks on foreign targets is weakened. But it doesn’t mean an end to terrorism,” said Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group in Jakarta, who is a leading expert on Jemaah Islamiyah (JI).

Noordin led a small but deadly JI splinter cell dedicated to violence against the West and other perceived enemies of Islam.

Jones said at least three of his followers could rise up to take his place, including Nur Hasbi, who is wanted in connection with the July 17 twin suicide bombings at the JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels in Jakarta. Two other possible successors are Reno, alias Tedi, at large since 2005, and Maruto Jati Sulistiono, on the run since 2006, Jones said.

All three men have escaped previous police dragnets and are able to recruit new followers to the group as well as potential suicide bombers.

Conboy said the National Police’s counterterrorism squad, Densus 88, must also prioritize tracking down Noordin’s subordinates who built the suicide vests and car bombs used in previous attacks. He also said the decision by President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to give the Armed Forces a role in counterterrorism operations would likely remain in place.

“I don’t see this really changing anything, although [police] were already going on a higher state of alert for Lebaran ,” he said. “But I’m sure they will continue to follow up on leads and try to get as many guys as possible.”

Jaleswary Pramodhawardani, a military expert from the Indonesian Institute of Sciences, regretted that Noordin and three followers who also died during the police raid weren’t taken alive.

“It would really help the police to investigate the case, to cut the chain of terrorism,” she said.

Nonetheless, the National Police, who were taunted by Noordin in taped messages and came under scathing criticism after the July hotel bombings, will get some of its swagger back.

“They have a right to feel satisfied with themselves,” Jones said. “Clearly the police chief in the press conference could hardly contain his joy. On the other hand … it’s worth reviewing this raid and the Temanggung raid to see if nonlethal tactics could have been used.” Joe Cochrane & Nurfika Osman