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Beijing. As China’s growing hunger for resources drives it past the United States to become the Persian Gulf region’s top customer for oil, its geopolitical strategy there is seen to be shifting to a higher gear as well.

From building stronger ties with Arab states to stepping up security efforts in the Gulf, Beijing is likely to exert a bigger role there in future, say analysts.

And while Beijing is unlikely to go as far as installing a major military presence in the Middle East any time soon, it may find itself working more closely with the US to maintain stability in the region.

This may include shifting away from its close alliance with the volatile Iran and relying more on supplies from US allies from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

In a sense, China is already most reliant on this club of six oil-rich states.

China has overtaken the US as the biggest importer of oil from the GCC, according to Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Professor Yang Guang.

And by 2025, China will be importing three times more oil from the members of the GCC than the US does, estimates author Pepe Escobar, who writes about energy issues and the Gulf.

Some GCC states, in particular, will be increasingly key to Beijing’s energy security strategy.

Saudi Arabia is already China’s biggest supplier of crude oil, selling it 1.12 million barrels per day in December.

This is almost twice as much as Iran, which provides 10 per cent of China’s oil imports and is widely expected to decline in coming months amid tensions over its nuclear programme.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) was among the markets with the fastest growth in oil exports to China in recent months, while Qatar has just become China’s biggest supplier of liquefied natural gas.

The growing importance of these three countries to Beijing was underscored by Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit there last week. It was the first overseas visit by a top-level Chinese official this year.

Besides a special stop in a coffee shop to chat with locals en route to Dubai, Wen brought an array of new bilateral deals including major investments and nuclear cooperation with Saudi Arabia.

The Chinese leader was also careful to quash scepticism that he was there just to get more oil.

“It should be said that I have come because of friendship,” he declared.

Still, the visit — the first time in 20 years that a top Chinese leader has visited Saudi Arabia and Wen’s first-ever trip to the UAE — was seen by some as proving that China has little choice but to cosy up to Iran’s neighbors.

After all, China will remain most dependent on the GCC for years to come — even as it seeks energy supplies elsewhere.

“China is trying to diversify away from the Middle East, by making deals with Russia, Venezuela, Brazil, Kazakhstan and others,” said Professor Andrew Kennedy from the Australian National University. “But for a variety of reasons, including geography and the distribution of the world’s oil reserves, it has limited ability to do so,” he noted.

Sanjaya Baru of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think-tank, agreed.

“The Gulf remains the most proximate source of oil for China,” he said. Fortunately for China, these states’ alliance with the US is not likely to pose a big concern for China, he added.

“Saudi Arabia, in particular, has a good reputation for being a long-term supplier and for maintaining good relations with both the US and China.”

So to keep the GCC states friendly and flowing with oil, Beijing is likely to deploy its economic clout. That includes exporting more cheap manufactured goods and food to the region to boost trade interdependence and supporting more trade denominated in the yuan currency.

Wen’s visit yielded a $5.5 billion currency swap with the UAE — the first such deal with a GCC state — so that more transactions can be made in the yuan.

Meanwhile, it may adjust its position on the region’s geopolitics — particularly Iran. This can win it favour with the GCC states that are among those eager to rein in Teheran’s nuclear programme and want Beijing to support their efforts.

“China already sees the risks of relying too much on Iran, so it is trying to diversify its energy ties to other Middle Eastern oil countries,” said Zhao Hong, senior researcher at the Singapore-based East Asia Institute.

So even as Beijing criticized the European Union’s ban on Iranian oil imports on Thursday as “not a constructive approach,” it also had strong words for Teheran. At a press conference in Qatar last Friday, Wen insisted that “China adamantly opposes Iran developing and possessing nuclear weapons.”

Returning to nuclear talks was a “top priority,” Beijing later told a visiting Iranian delegation. Such a stance must have pleased Wen’s hosts. They have been incensed by Iran’s refusal — until recently — to resume nuclear talks, and by its threats to retaliate against sanctions.

But on Thursday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared Iran was ready to re-start negotiations with the West.

Whether China, which Iran counts on as its biggest trading partner that buys 22 per cent of its oil imports, can take much credit for Teheran’s offer — if it is indeed sincere — is hard to tell.

But it is clear that Beijing will need to contribute more to keeping the region stable, including working more closely with the US to coordinate efforts, noted Baru. “Sooner or later, China will be required to invest in providing maritime military security to the region. Everybody is expecting China to,” he said.

A few Chinese ships already patrol the Arabian sea area, and more are expected to join as the US reduces its military presence in the Gulf over time.

Baru said: “China is just beginning to show its hand, it is very hesitant as of now, though it will certainly become more active in future.”

Reprinted courtesy of Straits Times Indonesia. To subscribe to Straits Times Indonesia and/or the Jakarta Globe call 021 2553 5055.