Direction Unclear for Russian Opposition
December 15, 2011
Russian tycoon Mikhail Prokhorov is one of a number of candidates with long odds to defeat Vladimir Putin. (AFP Photo) Related articles
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Moscow. Russia’s opposition, riding high after the largest anti-Kremlin protests in 20 years, has a big problem to overcome: It’s a fragile motley of groups whose leaders inspire little trust among unhappy voters.
That’s sowing doubts that opposition leaders will be able to move beyond popular disgruntlement and form a political force that can put on a credible show against Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in presidential elections next March.
Some of these leaders are seen as has-beens eager to resurrect their political careers, many are inexperienced, and others tilt to the radical or racist side.
Tens of thousands of Russians gathered on Saturday just across the river from the Kremlin where they chanted slogans and accused authorities of ballot-stuffing and other violations in the Dec. 4 parliamentary election that saw Putin’s United Russia party lose about 20 percent of its seats and barely retain a majority.
Dozens of speakers took their turns at an improvised podium to address the protesters. They represented a diverse crowd of often competing political groups united only by their dissatisfaction with the government.
With such a glaring lack of unity and charisma, many are wondering whether last weekend’s protests, which took place in more than 60 other cities nationwide, might fizzle out as the frigid Russian winter drags on and Kremlin strategists work overtime at dividing the opposition even further.
The one Kremlin critic who seems to have a shot at consolidating the disparate opposition voices is Alexei Navalny, a popular blogger and corruption whistleblower.
“The only opposition leader who stands any chance is Navalny. Period,” said author and analyst Yulia Latynina.
Authorities seem to understand Navalny’s potential, which could explain why he missed Saturday’s rally due to a 15-day jail sentence for attending an earlier rally to protest election results.
Navalny coined the popular epithet for United Russia — “the party of crooks and thieves” — that has become a common sight on protest T-shirts and banners.
An organizer of many recent protests, Sergei Udaltsov, was also behind bars and unable to attend Saturday’s rally. Udaltsov, the 34-year-old leader of a leftist group, was serving a 15-day arrest for disobeying police.
Other opposition leaders known for their criticism of Kremlin policies include Mikhail Kasyanov, who was prime minister during Putin’s first presidential term, and Boris Nemtsov, who briefly served as a deputy premier during Boris Yeltsin’s presidency.
Nemtsov and Kasyanov are “figures from the ‘90s, and the narrative of chaos of that period is still strong,” said Alex Nice, a Russia analyst at the London-based research organization Chatham House. “What is needed is new faces who can give new ideas.”
Eduard Limonov, one of the most radical and eccentric Kremlin critics, chose not to show up at the massive Saturday rally and led about 150 supporters to hold a separate protest near Red Square.
Another challenger who stayed out of Saturday’s rally is Mikhail Prokhorov, the billionaire owner of the New Jersey Nets basketball team. Although Prokhorov is a symbol of success among Russia’s emergent business class — his fortune is estimated by Forbes magazine at $18 billion — his wealth is likely to distance him from ordinary Russians.
On Wednesday, Prokhorov announced he plans to buy the Kommersant publishing house, an acquisition that would give him a major campaign platform — if the Kremlin allows him to use it.
Associated Press
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