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In the end, Taiwan did not see the very close race that most polls had predicted. Ma Ying-jeou recorded a 6 percent lead over Democratic Progressive Party hopeful Tsai Ing-wen in a poll with 74 percent voter turnout. Ma’s Kuomintang was also assured of an overall majority in the legislature, with 64 seats out of 113.

As a result of the victory, political relations with China are not likely to change much, mostly because members of the middle-ground opposition are looking for nothing more than economic opportunities with the mainland and a reduction in threats, although they would like to maintain de facto separate states, whatever the definition. Ma will not go to Beijing, but whatever happens in China will continue to exert an influence on attitudes in Taiwan.

Two factors seem to have given Ma a big boost on voting day, confounding the polls and DPP hopes after the opposition party’s success in municipal elections last year. Most important was a collapse in votes for former Kuomintang (KMT) stalwart James Soong, who managed to get only 2.8 percent of votes compared with the 4-7 percent he was expected to receive. It seems that many of his would-be voters decided not to support him, changing their minds in fear that a vote for him could allow the DPP to win in a close race, just like in 2000.

Ma’s “consensus” scare tactics were helped by the United States, which made its support for the incumbent abundantly clear despite claims of neutrality. The US government recently announced visa-free access for Taiwanese citizens, and just two days before the election, Douglas Paal, the former head of the American Institute in Taiwan, the equivalent of the US Embassy, made a much publicized speech in support of Ma.

Although Paal is no longer an official, his intervention was clearly approved at some level by the US State Department, which sometimes focuses more on short-term relations with Beijing than on Taiwanese rights to self-determination or longer-term US interests in the strategically crucial island.

Though the DPP may be disappointed, the party can take consolation in the extent of its recovery from its 2008 electoral disaster, when DPP candidate Frank Hsieh received only 41 percent of the vote. The election was likewise a small personal victory for ailing former president Lee Teng-hui, a promoter of democracy and Taiwan rights. His party, the Taiwan Solidarity Union, won almost 10 percent of the party vote and three seats in the legislature.

For Taiwan as a whole, the election was a triumph. However noisy it may have been, there was no violence and relatively few personal attacks, and the integrity of the voting system were not doubted. It was also remarkably un-sexist. Tsai’s gender probably played no part in her loss (though her single status might have). Indeed, had she won, she would have been the first elected female president in Asia who is not also the daughter, widow or other close relative of a former leader.

Given Tsai’s reputation as a conciliator, it seems unlikely that a DPP victory would have seriously upset cross-straits relations. The DPP has come far since the days of the disgraced Chen Shui-bian’s provocative independence rhetoric, realizing that Taiwanese people want to maintain the status quo and that cross-strait business links are now so important to both parties that leaders must deal with each other on a pragmatic level, even despite ideological differences.

There would have been no going back on the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, which has led to a huge increase in mainland tourism, or on the tariff cuts that have benefited Taiwan industries, new banking and other links.

A DPP government would have been very cautious, and Beijing may have been reluctant to make any concessions to Taiwan, though it may have reversed some to put pressure on Taipei. Ma, who had been moving slowly to avoid accusations of surrendering to Beijing’s interests, will now push ahead more quickly with an investment protection treaty, which will open some sectors to mainland investment, student exchanges and cultural exchanges.

It is easy, however, to exaggerate the importance of these. The ECFA has been significant in driving mainland tourism, and while growth in numbers may now be slow, China may make individual tourism easier, which would provide better returns to Taiwan than low-cost group tours.

On the trade front, exports to the mainland are now 41 percent of Taiwan’s total, but this has been only marginally increased by the ECFA, which covers more than 16 percent of them. In any case, an estimated 70 percent of Taiwan’s mainland exports are components for products, including iPads, iPhones and Nike shoes, that are ultimately exported to third countries. The real driver of Taiwan’s economy, then, is still the global market, not the mainland one.

This export success, however, has not translated to rising incomes for most Taiwanese people. Despite satisfactory growth in gross domestic product, household incomes have barely moved for several years, implying that profits are rising at the expense of average wages, while income disparities widen and consumer demand grows slowly.

At the same time, real estate prices have escalated dramatically, even as rents have barely moved. In the residential sector there is an overall vacancy rate of 19 percent — a surplus that, coupled with rising prices and static rents, can only be explained by speculation among companies and wealthier individuals.

The DPP’s focus on these issues made traction during the campaign, but it was ultimately insufficient to trump the issue of stable cross-straits relations at a time when the world economy is facing major problems.

Another factor in property speculation has been expectations that the mainland will buy upmarket residential property and rent top-grade office space in Taipei. There has been a slowdown in mainland interest in establishing offices in Taiwan, and mainland banks will also acquire a presence. However, mainland money seems unlikely to have an impact on the broader housing market, where most of the oversupply is concentrated. As in Hong Kong, if rich mainland money acquires top-of-the-line real estate, it will simply make wealth gaps appear bigger.

Despite the focus on cross-strait issues, Taiwan’s challenges may lie elsewhere. First, it needs to develop its economic ties with other countries by liberalizing its service sector, making free trade deals and maintaining the momentum of its innovation. In the longer term, it must also deal with a rapidly aging population and a birth rate that is now even lower than that of its East Asian neighbors.

These are all issues that require sustained policies, and the election slogans gave little indication of how either party will address them.

Philip Bowring, a former editor of The Far Eastern Economic Review, is a founder and consulting editor of Asia Sentinel.