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In May, newly “elected” Burmese President Thein Sein flew to Beijing to meet with Chinese leaders. The trip, his first state visit as president of Burma, was intended to upgrade Sino-Burmese relations.

In that respect, Thein Sein’s trip was a success. While he was in Beijing, the two nations agreed to forge a comprehensive “strategic partnership” and Chinese Prime Minster Wen Jiabao declared after the meeting that, “The partnership is bound to push forward bilateral friendly cooperation in all areas to a new stage.”

At the time, there was no doubt that China remained firmly behind the Burmese regime following the November 2010 sham election. Whether they wore civilian clothes or a military uniform, Burma’s ruling leaders knew they could count on Beijing’s unequivocal support in the international arena.

Last week, however, Thein Sein dropped a bombshell by announcing his government’s decision to suspend Burma’s controversial Myitsone Dam project, which has China as its main investor. While most of the Burmese population applauded the bold move as having saved the Irrawaddy River and reflected the will of the people, it left some political pundits scratching their heads and wondering whether it was a rational decision given that it could greatly anger China.

Thein Sein is generally viewed as a politician who is sometimes indecisive, but on its face, the decision to suspend work on the Myitsone Dam was bold and risky. So many are wondering what motivated him to apparently thumb his nose at his powerful “strategic partner.”

Was it a calculated move to win more friends in the West at a time when the Burmese government is seeking to reduce or eliminate sanctions and deflect a call for a UN commission of inquiry into crimes against humanity?

Was it intended to demonstrate the willingness of Burma’s new government to “listen to public opinion,” as Thein Sein announced in his statement to Parliament, and preserve both the integrity of the Irrawaddy River and blunt Chinese influence in Burma?

Can it be seen as a major concession to anti-dam activists and the political opposition, who were threatening to turn the issue into a cause celebre that would unite the public and potentially incite it to rise up against the government?

Could it be all of the above?

Some political observers speculate Thein Sein’s decision was a political signal to the United States and the European Union — both of whom welcomed the announcement and remain committed to an “engagement” policy with Burma — that Burma is willing to cooperate, to some extent, in their efforts to dampen China’s influence in Burma.

According to news reports, the president of China Power Investment, Lu Qizhou, called the suspension bewildering and said it “will lead to a series of legal issues.” China’s Foreign Ministry also urged Burma to protect the interests of Chinese companies.

This could indicate the start of a diplomatic row between the two nations. But despite the growing anti-Chinese sentiment in both Burma’s general population and its new government, Burma probably would not dare to directly challenge China in a manner that would provoke the dragon’s full wrath.

Politically and economically, Burma still needs China. For more than two decades, Beijing has backed the Burmese regime whenever it faced international pressure and condemnation for its brutal clampdowns on civilians and opposition forces. Anytime Burma faced a censure debate in the UN Security Council, it easily hid behind Beijing.

Therefore, Burma’s civilian regime will likely continue its dependence on China in the form of other joint mega-projects, including the controversial oil pipeline and railway projects across upper Burma from Shan state to Arakan state.

But it is important to remember that China needs Burma as well. Beijing has invested heavily in Burma’s energy sector and will continue to do so. Burma is also strategically important to China, because it is only through Burma that China has access to the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean.

For these reasons, China also does not want to overreact to the dam suspension and push Burma toward the West.

It is a well-known fact, however, that some Burmese leaders — including some in uniform — want to distance Burma from China. Therefore, some pundits argue that it is time for the West to change its Burma policy and be more accommodating to the leaders of the new government. But the United States has thus far insisted that Burma make concrete reforms.

In any event, one thing is clear: Burma under President Thein Sein has a chance to develop a closer relationship with the West if speedy and substantive reforms are undertaken in the near future.

Thant Myint-U, author of “Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia,” concluded that progress in Burma would be a boon for the region, and a peaceful, prosperous and democratic Burma would be a game-changer for all Asia. Everyone would like to see Thant Myint-U’s happy scenario become a reality, and in order to move in that direction it is important for Burma to re-enter the world community with dignity.

It is time for Burma to embrace the West and regional neighbors to counter China’s influence. To make this happen, Thein Sein must make major political reforms in Burma.

The suspension of the Myitsone Dam project was, perhaps, his first step in that direction.

Aung Zaw is the founder and editor of Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at aungzaw@irrawaddy.org.