Missed Opportunity: the US & Indonesia After 9/11
Yohanes Sulaiman | September 12, 2011
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464788Yohanes
Personally, I am grateful to JG for the opportunity to express my opinions and let off some frustrations. I guess this is adequate reward for my efforts. Yes, I can tell you were pulling my leg on that one.
You know, I met BM once during a social gathering and found him a cocky sob. Loves to fight and shoots from the hips. But, he proved himself with that rescue operation in Thailand.
@Valkyrie: he told me too, so no worries. All I can say is that he is somewhere over the rainbow. :D
Petisi50 was an opportunity lost for early Indonesia democratization, so yeah it was a huge shame. I got the info from different person. It"s a small town anyway. :D
On religion: I agree, but until the govt and political elites are mature enough to understand that excessive and blind involvement of religion and fundamentalism in politics brings nothing but long term grief, I'm afraid it will always be a problem until people get sick of it and wise up and begin the secularization of political life.
BTW, Valk: Are we getting paid for putting juicy gossips and long replies like this? :D
Yohanes,
Hey! You're sharp!..., but sorry I was told of his whereabouts in confidence.
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"It is only after years of internal transformation then a system can truly become democratic"
As long as Religion permeates Politics, I do not believe "true" democracy can be achieved. The other thorn on the side I can see is the ever present feudalism.
You mentioned "petisi 50." I was around then and I was very close to one person (four star, not BM)) who could easily have removed Suharto.(enakajah and I discussed this in lrngthy detail, actually) However, being a true blooded Javanese he couldn't make himself support P-50.
BM was a Suharto loyalist even after the so called "de-benny-nisation". Thus, it was thought if P-50 had a Judas Iscariot amongst them.
Well, the rest is history as you know it too!
Wow what a fun morning.
@Valkyrie: yeah he is in an undisclosed location. I'd hazard to guess that he is accompanying Dick Cheney? :D
@SirAnthony: interesting comments.
I am serious in blaming Karzai and his ilks. He is not a complete puppet. He has a choice of running a regime professionally. He chose instead to run his regime with his cronies. To say he is a complete puppet is oversimplifying the reality of situation there.
You may want to check some articles written by Ahmad Rashid, a Pakistani journalist on that. There are many more papers written on the limit of US influence on Karzai regimes.
Still, it is interesting when you argue about the "inner impulse" of people, because if you think about it, then there is no such thing as "democracy" because every single revolution, including the US Revolution, is done by a group of elites who then impose democracy on people. It is only after years of internal transformation then a system can truly become democratic.
Similarly in South America. Throw in bread and circus to people, bribe or terrorize political elites, mobilize people with unsustainable welfare state, and voila. Chavez been doing it using his bread and circus. Lula been doing it too, though he is not as blatant as Chavez - he knows very well that he might scare away investors and seeing how well such scare tactics serve Chavez, Lula is smart enough not to repeat it. Yet, corruption is very high there. You can ask Dilma who has to sweep the mess.
So if that's the case, why do you even take offense when I am half-seriously said, “Actually, making democracy is easy. Suharto has been doing it nicely with his elections?”
Of course we all know that Suharto's democracy is very flawed (though the fact that today there are many people truly want to return to that era is very troubling indeed). Still, it did follow every single "demands" of democracy, notably as a way to represent people's will.
Suharto did take this very seriously, he was watching the percentage of voters choosing PDI and PPP and surmised that meant the disatisfaction to his regime was increasing. In places where the dissatisfaction were high, he replaced the leaders. Sounds like working pretty well for me! :D
Though, counterfactually, what if in 1980, more political elites decided to join the Petisi 50? What if Benny Moerdani's discontent was joined openly by other generals? What if their pressure managed to make Suharo resign in 1983, 1988 or 1993?
It is a counterfactual, but I am saying that it is possible that Suharto's democracy could evolve, especially had the political elites back then got their acts together.
Suharto was not Stalin or Mao. His soft authoritarian allowed limited discontent and some choices on the political elites. Still the elites remained with him because it was profitable. People did support Suharto because he gave them bread and circus and stability. Go to villages today and you will find that surprisingly he is still very popular!
On Sunni and Shia: here's my question. If these people hate each other so much, why they were able live together for centuries? Think about it. If I don't like other religion living next to me, I could expel them like the Spanish did in Reconquesta.
The answer: states' manipulations, notably the interests of Saudi and Iran and the influence of power-hungry local elites.
Like it or not, majority of people are apolitical. They don't give a damn about politics and they are only concerned with their daily lives - including all your Lulavistas in Brazil, what they care about are bread and circus. So, yeah, I am actually agreeing with you.
Still, it is important to understand that people do and will change. In the US, the elite-based democracy then slowly evolved to liberal democracy of today with suffrages and emancipation. Democracy, in essence, is providing a choice for people who will slowly learn to pick a better leader.
The speed of learning, however, is influenced by the political elites because they have the ability at present day to change the game. Thus, I am blaming Karzai for wasting this opportunity.
Meh, hope this makes sense.
Yohannes,
I am not able to communicate with "enakajah" at the moment. He's incommunicado. (where he currently is, at least)
I know that he'll certainly return when it's all over.
On Sept. 17, 2001, President Megawati Sukarnoputri arrived in the United States. She became the first head of state to visit the country in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack that shocked the United States and the world.
On Sept. 19, Megawati gave a speech at the USINDO gala dinner. Written by politician Rizal Mallarangeng, the speech was eloquent and hit all the right notes. It stressed the importance of the US-Indonesia relationship, noted that the United States had been very influential in Indonesia and that Indonesia had a strong strategic importance with the country. It reminded the United States that Indonesia was a newly democratic country that had the largest Muslim population in the world and that it would be critical in maintaining regional stability and would be very important in America’s future “War on Terror.”
More important, Megawati stressed that despite the United States’ military embargo that had crippled Indonesia’s ability to defend itself, Indonesia was willing to help the United States in times of need. The help, however, was not free. Megawati commented on the challenges facing Indonesia, notably its limited resources and its own internal troubles of a financial crisis, corruption, separatism, GAM-led terrorism and ethno-religious conflicts that would hamper its ability to contribute to US interests — implicitly demanding some sort of quid pro quo.
Such a demand was not unethical. Rather, it is common in international relations that the stronger state, in this case the United States, should bring something to the table in exchange for support.
And the potential payoff for Indonesia was enormous. The United States could pressure its allies to stay out of Indonesia’s internal affairs; it could throw in a lot of much-needed economic and technical assistance; and it could lift the arms embargo on the Indonesian armed forces, accelerating their modernization. There were also trade concessions being dangled.
And there was reason to expect this kind of massive payoff. In October 2001, Frida Berrigan, a peace activist and research associate at the World Policy Institute who was not a fan of US-Indonesia rapprochement, complained in the World Policy Journal that President George W. Bush “promised Megawati economic aid totaling more than $700 million, including money for police training and civilian courses in defense under the E-IMET program [Expanded-International Military Education and Training]. Bush also expressed his desire to resume regular military contact, and lift the embargo on the sale of ‘non-lethal’ weapons.”
In essence, Indonesia would have received much of what it wanted from Washington without too much hassle or arduous negotiations, simply because Indonesia was in the right place at the right time.
Unfortunately, the Indonesian political elites did not think of the long-term interests of the nation, instead focusing on their own short-term interests and as a result blowing a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.
After the United States began bombing Afghanistan, Indonesian political leaders raced to condemn the action, simply to court the fabled “Muslim vote” that would supposedly bring an absolute majority in the legislature. Vice President Hamzah Haz demanded that the United States end the hostilities in Afghanistan. Not surprisingly, faced with political pressure, Megawati quickly backtracked from her position of support for the United States.
Thanks to this, many of the offers that Bush put on the table were withdrawn. It was not until 2005 that the military assistance to Indonesia was partly carried out, and it was conditional on a yearly evaluation by the US secretary of state of conditions in Papua.
In 2008, the US foreign aid request for Indonesia was just $185.6 million. In contrast, Pakistan, which publicly opposed the US invasion of Afghanistan and covertly supported the Taliban, but allowed the United States to use its airspace to invade Afghanistan, benefited greatly from this double game. According to the Congressional Research Service, the United States waived nuclear weapons sanctions on Pakistan, rescheduled the country’s debts and provided both official and unofficial foreign aid totaling $20 billion.
In the meantime, in spite of Haz’s bold assertion that there were no terrorists in Indonesia, Jemaah Islamiyah struck Bali with car bombs, killing 202 people in 2002. The bombing crippled Bali’s tourism for years, depriving Indonesia of much-needed income.
The tables were turned. Instead of Indonesia demanding payment from the United States for its cooperation, Indonesia had to ask for US assistance in its own “War on Terror,” helping the United States to fight its war without gaining as many economic benefits as it could have.
For Megawati, the Bali bombing inadvertently spelled the end of her presidency as it presaged the ascension of Gen. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who in the aftermath of the bombing managed to show his leadership, his command and control of the situation. This later ushered him to the presidency, as ordinary people yearned for bold and decisive leadership, a proverbial stonewall in the middle of chaos caused by the greedy political class.
Ten years after 9/11, Indonesia’s internal situation is vastly improved. The terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah has been decimated, major ethno-religious conflicts are no longer seen as inevitable as people mature and understand the stupidity of such conflicts, and the country’s economy is growing.
Sadly, however, Indonesia’s political elites remain mired in their old ways of thinking, preferring political posturing in order to score short-term political gains, rather than doing something bold and decisive, and focusing on the long-term interests of the nation. Such thinking robbed Indonesia of its once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It won’t be surprising if there is an encore.
Yohanes Sulaiman is a lecturer at the Indonesian Defense University.
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PLEASE EXCUSE THE CAPITALS - BUT I NEED TO HAVE MYSELF HEARD!!! FINALLY - ONE NEWS PORTAL ( NOT THIS ONE) HAS ACTUALLY GOTTEN AROUN
