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Australia last week played up a $34.6 billion liquefied natural gas deal with China, with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd stating the bilateral relationship had survived a number of problems, not least the arrest for espionage of four employees of mining giant Rio Tinto.

The PetroChina deal, from Beijing’s side of the divide, is likely to be an entirely different issue compared with the alleged espionage issue and another irritant, Canberra’s agreement to allow a visit by Uighur native and separatist figure Rebiya Kadeer.

In a similar use of China’s clout, Indonesia was recently forced to send home the large majority of 75 Chinese fishermen arrested in what Indonesia considers its exclusive economic zone to the north of the Natuna islands.

While the cases are different, the tactics of the Chinese government are similar: apply pressure over an incident that has the potential to provide long-term advantage, then release that pressure while retaining the moral high ground.

In the fishing incident, Beijing initially demanded the return of all of the fishermen, then relented and allowed Indonesia to keep the captains of the eight boats on charges of illegal fishing. No reports of any pursuit of that case by the authorities have been published, perhaps indicating that it has been quietly dropped rather than upset China.

In pressing its hand, China stated that the fishermen were operating in the waters of the Nangsha islands, its name for the Spratly group, and has effectively reinstated its claim to the southernmost islands in the group and left the way open for a further claim should there prove to be oil and gas reserves in the area.

In the Rio Tinto case, while the four employees — including Australian Stern Hu — were initially held on charges of stealing state secrets, China then downgraded the charges to business bribery. China might also argue privately that Rio Tinto slighted it in rejecting a proposed A$19.5 billion ($16.3 billion) investment in the company by China’s state-owned metals giant Chinalco, in what must have appeared to Beijing as an unfriendly act.

In both the Rio Tinto and fisheries cases, the critical factor for all the nations in the region is China’s tactics: it starts out talking tough, then compromises while maintaining the upper hand, leaving itself in a strong position for further assaults.

The case of Rebiya Kadeer is arguably different. The woman considered the spiritual leader of the Uighur Muslim minority in China’s far west is in the same category as the Dalai Lama: a thorn in the shoe, but not one that will stop the country’s forward movement toward regional and then international dominance.

China will not go all out to use its political might to force its neighbors into submission, at least not at this stage. As Wang Yong of Peking University was reported as stating when the LNG deal was signed, China will deal with disputes with Australia in a “cooperative way” because it relies on economic cooperation.

Just as it needs Australian raw materials, it needs Indonesia for energy supplies and as a market for its goods. Indonesia risks being drawn into a Chinese zone of influence through a steady flow of credit — such as funding for power plants — and through trade dominance.

In the wider region, China cannot for the time being hope to challenge the United States as a global power, especially given the vast superiority of American naval power. Despite its size and its enormous economic potential, China remains a developing nation in comparison to the vast technological lead of the United States.

However, with cracks appearing in US dominance, not least the morass it has got itself into in Iraq and Afghanistan plus the enormity of the debt it has amassed as a result of the financial meltdown, China can begin to see opportunity in the long term.

Translating long-term potential into reality will need great care and finesse on the part of Beijing, but if there is one thing that China possesses, it is patience.

That important commodity, plus a cool strategic mind as displayed in its recent gambits involving Australia and Indonesia, can be expected to be the touchstone of its strategies over the next few decades.

For Indonesia, the challenge will be to effectively play one of its many suitors off against the others and maintain a real degree of independence. As the fishing incursion showed, it will also need to be on guard for stealthy Chinese attempts to erode both its sovereignty and, in the longer term, its ability to act independently in both political and economic spheres.

Keith Loveard is a Jakarta-based security consultant and journalist.