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Auckland. By every means of comparison bar one, New Zealand should beat France in Sunday’s World Cup final to end the 24-year wait of a rugby-mad nation for its second world title.

The All Blacks have been the outstanding team of the tournament, winning their pool matches by margins of between 20 and 76 points, scoring 240 points and conceding 49 in four games, then beating Argentina and Australia in knockout matches with barely a flicker of anxiety on the field.

France lost twice in pool matches, to New Zealand and in almost humiliating fashion to Tonga, then compounded its poor form with a self-destructive display of internal discord.

The All Blacks sustained a key injury during pool play — the loss of star flyhalf Dan Carter — that was thought to be capable of derailing their campaign, but they took it in stride.

As reigning world champion South Africa and 2003 champion England fell in the quarterfinals along with Ireland, New Zealand steered an unbroken course to the final. In the nature of All Blacks rugby, it drew on almost prodigious depth of talent, elevating 22-year-old flyhalf Aaron Cruden and scrumhalf Piri Weepu to indispensable roles without any disruption.

Every aspect of the teams’ respective passages to Sunday’s championship match seemed to lead to one conclusion — that New Zealand would beat France on Sunday to claim the World Cup for the first time since 1987. An Irish gambling house, so confident of the outcome, reportedly paid out on a New Zealand win before the match was played.

New Zealanders would be equally sanguine if it was not for one issue that confounds comparisons between the teams: the unpredictable French. France has twice beaten New Zealand in World Cup knockout matches, most recently in 2007, when it eliminated the All Blacks in the quarterfinals.

That defeat shocked New Zealanders, implanting in the national psyche a fear that a second World Cup victory might always elude the All Blacks. Coaches Graham Henry, Wayne Smith and Steve Hansen retained their jobs in the face of stiff public opposition and now have the chance four years later to make their peace with fans by delivering the World Cup.

“It’s a very exciting situation that we’re in, a final against France, our arch-nemesis at World Cup time,” Carter said. “We all know about the past that we’ve had with the French.

“They’re such a dangerous side, especially when their backs are against the wall and they have a lot of doubters. That’s when they step up and they’ve shown that in 2007 and also in 1999. We have to expect the unexpected.”

As a measure of how much the match means to New Zealanders, a recent survey by a respected polling agency asked if respondents were more concerned about the outcome of the Rugby World Cup or a Nov. 26 election which will decide who governs the country for the next three years. Almost one-third of those surveyed said they were more concerned about the World Cup.

In a poll conducted by the New Zealand Herald newspaper, only 7 percent of All Blacks fans said they thought the World Cup was as good as won; 17 percent said they were in fear of a great French performance.

“I always expect the best of the All Blacks,” France coach Marc Lievremont said. “They were exceptional in the semifinal against Australia, aggressive, dominating and they were playing their best rugby.

“I’m not sure it helps us at all that they are such favorites. We are in the final match and every time we play them it is the same thing. They are always the favorites and all I can say is that I believe in my team and I believe they can win.”

Winger Vincent Clerc summarized the attitude of the French players, who have drawn motivation from the fact their World Cup prospects have been so brutally dismissed.

“Nothing is written yet,” he said. “I don’t feel like a future loser, or someone who has no chance of winning.”

Associated Press